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Une analyse économétrique des déterminants des hospitalisations dues à la Covid-19

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  • Francis Bismans

Abstract

Ce document de travail s’appuie sur des données journalières relatives aux personnes vaccinées, à celles infectées par le coronavirus et aux hospitalisations pour tenter d’établir une relation de cointégration entre ces différentes variables. Les séries utilisées concernent la Belgique et vont du 1er février 2021 au 20 septembre 2021. Cette relation s’obtient à l’aide d’un modèle économétrique dynamique ARDL à correction d’erreur. Les principaux résultats de l’analyse sont les suivants : lorsque le nombre de vaccinés s’accroit de 1%, le nombre de personnes hospitalisées diminue, lui, de 0,24% ; quand celui des contaminations s’accroît de 1 pourcent, les hospitalisations augmentent de 1,05%.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis Bismans, 2021. "Une analyse économétrique des déterminants des hospitalisations dues à la Covid-19," Working Papers of BETA 2021-42, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2021-42
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    File URL: http://beta.u-strasbg.fr/WP/2021/2021-42.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointégration; Coronavirus; mécanisme à correction d’erreur; méthodologie GETS; modèle ARDL; pandémie; tests de racine unitaire.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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