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Noise Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Lippi, Marco
  • Forni, Mario
  • Sala, Luca
  • Gambetti, Luca

Abstract

We introduce noisy information into a standard present value stock price model. Agents receive a noisy signal about the structural shock driving future dividend variations. The resulting equilibrium stock price includes a transitory component ? the "noise bubble" ? which can be responsible for boom and bust episodes unrelated to economic fundamentals. We propose a non-standard VAR procedure to estimate the structural shock and the "noise" shock, their impulse response functions and the bubble component of stock prices. We apply such procedure to US data and find that noise explains a large fraction of stock price volatility. In particular the dot-com bubble is entirely explained by noise. On the contrary the stock price boom peaking in 2007 is not a bubble, whereas the following stock market crisis is largely due to negative noise shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lippi, Marco & Forni, Mario & Sala, Luca & Gambetti, Luca, 2013. "Noise Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 9532, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9532
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2017. "Noise Bubbles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1940-1976, September.

    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Alfredo Di Tillio & Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2017. "Persuasion Bias in Science: Can Economics Help?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 266-304, October.
    3. Abel Brodeur & Mathias Lé & Marc Sangnier & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    4. Lionel Page & Charles N. Noussair & Robert Slonim, 2021. "The replication crisis, the rise of new research practices and what it means for experimental economics," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 7(2), pages 210-225, December.
    5. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2017. "News, Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations (No News is Good News)," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 132, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    6. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Noise shocks; Rational bubbles; Structural vars;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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