Weathering Tight Economic Times: The Sales Evolution Of Consumer Durables Over The Business Cycle
AbstractDespite its obvious importance, not much marketing research focuses on how business-cycle fluctuations affect individual companies and/or industries. Often, one only has aggregate information on the state of the national economy, even though cyclical contractions and expansions need not have an equal impact on every industry, nor on all firms in that industry. Using recent time-series developments, we introduce various measures to quantify the extent and nature of business-cycle fluctuations in sales. Specifically, we discuss the notions of cyclical volatility and cyclical comovement, and consider two types of cyclical asymmetry related, respectively, to the relative size of the peaks and troughs and the rate of change in upward versus downward parts of the cycle. In so doing, we examine how consumers adjust their purchasing behavior across different phases of the business cycle. We apply these concepts to a broad set (24) of consumer durables, for which we analyze the cyclical sensitivity in their sales evolution. In that way, we (i) derive a novel set of empirical generalizations, and (ii) test different marketing theory-based hypotheses on the underlying drivers of cyclical sensitivity. Consumer durables are found to be more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the general economic activity, as expressed in an average cyclical volatility of more than four times the one in GNP, and an average comovement elasticity in excess of 2. This observation calls for an explicit consideration of cyclical variation in durable sales. Moreover, even though no evidence is found for depth asymmetry, the combined evidence across all durables suggests that asymmetry is present in the speed of up- and downward movements, as durable sales fall much quicker during contractions than they recover during economic expansions. Finally, key variables related to the industry's pricing activities, the nature of the durable (convenience vs. leisure), and the stage in a product's life cycle tend to moderate the extent of cyclical sensitivity in durable sales patterns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam in its series ERIM Report Series Research in Management with number ERS-2003-046-MKT.
Date of creation: 06 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: RSM Erasmus University & Erasmus School of Economics, PoBox 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam
Phone: 31-10-408 1182
Fax: 31-10-408 9020
Web page: http://www.erim.eur.nl/
More information through EDIRC
business cycles; consumer durables; sales evolution; time-series econometrics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
- M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting
- M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tinsley, P A & Krieger, Reva, 1997.
"Asymmetric Adjustments of Price and Output,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 631-52, July.
- P. A. Tinsley & Reva Krieger, 1997. "Asymmetric adjustments of price and output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Peter A. Tinsley & Reva Krieger, . "Asymmetric Adjustments of Price and Output," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _059, Society for Computational Economics.
- Randal Verbrugge Randal Verbrugge, 1997. "Investigating Cyclical Asymmetries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, April.
- Green, Edward J. & Porter, Robert H., 1982.
"Noncooperative Collusion Under Imperfect Price Information,"
367, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Green, Edward J & Porter, Robert H, 1984. "Noncooperative Collusion under Imperfect Price Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 87-100, January.
- Edward J Green & Robert H Porter, 1997. "Noncooperative Collusion Under Imperfect Price Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1147, David K. Levine.
- David Bowman & Deborah Minehart & Matthew Rabin, 1994.
"Loss aversion in a consumption/savings model,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
492, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Peter N. Golder & Gerard J. Tellis, 1997. "Will It Every Fly? Modeling the Takeoff of Really New Consumer Durables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(3), pages 256-270.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jon Vilasuso, 1997. "The relationship between cash flow and investment in the United States at business cycle frequencies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1283-1293.
- Dekimpe, M.G. & Hanssens, D., 1995. "Empirical generalizations about market evolution and stationarity," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-358840, Tilburg University.
- Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994.
"Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-61, March.
- Ball, L. & Mankiw, N.G., 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1602, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 4089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rajiv Lal & V. Padmanabhan, 1995. "Competitive Response and Equilibria," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages G101-G108.
- Mayhew, Glenn E & Winer, Russell S, 1992. " An Empirical Analysis of Internal and External Reference Prices Using Scanner Data," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 62-70, June.
- van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
- Frantzen, Dirk J, 1986. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Manufacturing Prices in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 389-408, June.
- Nooteboom, B. & Berger, H. & Noorderhaven, N.G., 1997. "Effects of trust and governance on relational risk," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-73834, Tilburg University.
- Shea, John, 1995. "Union Contracts and the Life-Cycle/Permanent-Income Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 186-200, March.
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984.
"The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States,"
NBER Working Papers
1450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bruce G. S. Hardie & Eric J. Johnson & Peter S. Fader, 1993. "Modeling Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence Effects on Brand Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 378-394.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1989.
"Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Krishnamurthi, Lakshman & Mazumdar, Tridib & Raj, S P, 1992. " Asymmetric Response to Price in Consumer Brand Choice and Purchase Quantity Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(3), pages 387-400, December.
- Steffens, Paul R, 2001. "An Aggregate Sales Model for Consumer Durables Incorporating a Time-Varying Mean Replacement Age," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 63-77, January.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Gucht, L. van de & Dekimpe, M.G. & Kwok, C., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-358837, Tilburg University.
- Englund, Peter & Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992.
"Swedish business cycles: 1861-1988,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 343-371, December.
- Englund, P. & Persson, T. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1991. "Swedish Business Cycles : 1861-1988," RCER Working Papers 275a, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Englund, P. & Persson, T. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "Swedish Business Cyscles: 1861-1988," Papers 1990r, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- W.A. Razzak, 2001.
"Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January.
- Weshah Razzak, 2001. "Triples Asymmetry Test for "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence"," Computer Codes razzak01, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Kumar, V. & Leone, Robert P. & Gaskins, John N., 1995. "Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 361-377, September.
- Richard H. Thaler, 2008.
"Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice,"
INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992.
"International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
- Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, octubre-d.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-61, November.
- Caballero, Ricardo J, 1993.
"Durable Goods: An Explanation for Their Slow Adjustment,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 351-84, April.
- Ricardo J. Caballero, 1991. "Durable Goods: An Explanation for Their Slow Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 3748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caballero, R.J., 1990. "Durable Goods: An Explanation For Their Slow Adjustment," Discussion Papers 1990_49, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Marnik G. Dekimpe & Dominique M. Hanssens, 1995. "Empirical Generalizations About Market Evolution and Stationarity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages G109-G121.
- Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
- Gale, Douglas, 1996. "Delay and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 169-98, April.
- Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June.
- Gerard J. Tellis & Stefan Stremersch & Eden Yin, 2003. "The International Takeoff of New Products: The Role of Economics, Culture, and Country Innovativeness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 188-208, October.
- Lawrence J. Cristiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-83.
- Rajshree Agarwal & Barry L. Bayus, 2002. "The Market Evolution and Sales Takeoff of Product Innovations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1024-1041, August.
- Roland T. Rust & J. Jeffrey Inman & Jianmin Jia & Anthony Zahorik, 1999. "What You Know About Customer-Perceived Quality: The Role of Customer Expectation Distributions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 77-92.
- Yash P. Mehra, 2001. "The wealth effect in empirical life-cycle aggregate consumption equations," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 45-67.
- Daniel S. Putler, 1992. "Incorporating Reference Price Effects into a Theory of Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 287-309.
- Dan Horsky, 1990. "A Diffusion Model Incorporating Product Benefits, Price, Income and Information," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 342-365.
- Vincent R. Nijs & Marnik G. Dekimpe & Jan-Benedict E.M. Steenkamps & Dominique M. Hanssens, 2001. "The Category-Demand Effects of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 1-22, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RePub).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.