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Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: an international perspective

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Author Info
Terence C. Mills
Abstract

The business cycle behaviour of macroeconomic variables has long been of interest to economists, and attention has recently focused on two aspects of this behaviour - the 'stylized facts' of cyclical asymmetry and duration dependence. Cyclical asymmetry is where the economy behaves differently over the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle. Duration dependence, on the other hand, concerns the question of whether, for example, the probability of a cyclical expansion is dependent on how long the expansion has been running, or whether business cycle lengths tend to cluster around a particular duration. Using an international data set containing annual output per capita for 22 countries, we focus attention on non-parametric techniques for extracting cyclical components and for modelling and testing asymmetry and duration dependence. Once outliers, primarily associated with wars, are omitted, there is little international evidence of asymmetry. There is considerably more evidence of duration dependence, which is detected in the majority of countries using a variety of non-parametric tests. There is thus widespread evidence against the constant hazard hypothesis that cyclical patterns occur simply by chance. Business cycle durations do appear to cluster around certain values, with the average duration being about 3.6 years.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2001)
Issue (Month): 6 (August)
Pages: 713-724
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Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:28:y:2001:i:6:p:713-724

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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. McCulloch, J Hutson, 1975. "The Monte Carlo Cycle in Business Activity," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 303-21, September.
  3. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1991. "Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence," Working Papers 91-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mills, Terence C & Crafts, N F R, 2000. "After the Golden Age: A Long-Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded Up, Slowed Down and Still Differ," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(1), pages 68-91, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Antonietta Mira, 1999. "Distribution-free test for symmetry based on Bonferroni's measure," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(8), pages 959-972, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  13. Mudambi, Ram & Taylor, Larry W, 1991. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle: A Note," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 654-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 224-36, April.
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  1. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lamey, L. & Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Steenkamp, J.B.E.M., 2005. "The Impact of Business-Cycle Fluctuations on Private-Label Share," Research Paper ERS-2005-061-MKT Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Working Paper Series rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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