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Empirical Generalizations About Market Evolution and Stationarity

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  • Marnik G. Dekimpe

    (Catholic University Leuven)

  • Dominique M. Hanssens

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

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    Abstract

    We present empirical generalizations about conditions under which marketing variables evolve or remain stationary. We first define evolution statistically and make the case why it is an important concept for increasing our understanding of long-run marketing effectiveness. We then briefly review ways in which evolution can be tested empirically from readily available data. We present a database of over 400 prior analyses and catalog the relative incidence of stationarity versus evolution in market performance and marketing spending. We find that evolution is the dominant characteristic for sales and marketing-mix spending, but that stationarity is the dominant characteristic for market share. Thus we find strong support for the conjecture that many markets are in a long-run equilibrium where the relative position of the players is only temporarily disturbed by their respective marketing activities. We assess the impact of a number of covariates on the likelihood of finding stationarity/evolution in sales and market share, and discuss the managerial implications of our findings.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.14.3.G109
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 3_supplement ()
    Pages: G109-G121

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:14:y:1995:i:3_supplement:p:g109-g121

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    Keywords: econometric models; marketing mix; evolution; stationarity;

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    Cited by:
    1. Marusia Ivanova, 2007. "Genesis and Evolution of Market Share Predictive Models," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 117-148.
    2. B. Vindevogel & D. Van Den Poel & G. Wets, 2004. "Why promotion strategies based on market basket analysis do not work," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/262, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Zhang, Xiaolong & Burke, Gerard J., 2011. "Analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 514-526, May.
    4. Caroline Elliott, 2001. "A Cointegration Analysis of Advertising and Sales Data," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 417-426, June.
    5. Villanueva, Julian & Yoo, Shijin & Hanssens, Dominique M., 2003. "Impact of acquisition channels on customer equity, The," IESE Research Papers D/516, IESE Business School.
    6. Joseph, Joy, 2005. "Competitive Pricing Analysis in Mature & Evolving Markets A Time Series Approach," MPRA Paper 7685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Vipul Pare & John Dawes, 2012. "The persistence of excess brand loyalty over multiple years," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 163-175, March.
    8. Dekimpe, M.G. & Hanssens, D.M., 2003. "Persistence Modeling for Assessing Marketing Strategy Performance," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-088-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    9. Sergio, Brasini & Marzia, Freo & Giorgio, Tassinari, 2008. "An analysis of the role of liking on the memorial response to advertising," MPRA Paper 12342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Sarvary, M. & Parker, P.M., 2003. "Weathering Tight Economic Times: The Sales Evolution Of Consumer Durables Over The Business Cycle," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-046-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    11. Ouyang, Ming & Zhou, Dongsheng & Zhou, Nan, 2002. "Estimating marketing persistence on sales of consumer durables in China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 337-342, April.
    12. Alperovych, Yan & Hübner, Georges, 2011. "Explaining returns on venture capital backed companies: Evidence from Belgium," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 277-295, September.
    13. Bart Bronnenberg & Jean Dubé & Carl Mela & Paulo Albuquerque & Tulin Erdem & Brett Gordon & Dominique Hanssens & Guenter Hitsch & Han Hong & Baohong Sun, 2008. "Measuring long-run marketing effects and their implications for long-run marketing decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 367-382, December.
    14. Horváth, C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Deriving dynamic marketing effectiveness from econometric time series models," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-079-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    15. G. Dekimpe, Marnik & Hanssens, Dominique M. & Silva-Risso, Jorge M., 1998. "Long-run effects of price promotions in scanner markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 269-291, November.
    16. Grewal, Rajdeep & Mills, Jeffrey A. & Mehta, Raj & Mujumdar, Sudesh, 2001. "Using cointegration analysis for modeling marketing interactions in dynamic environments: methodological issues and an empirical illustration," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 127-144, February.

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