Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market
AbstractThis study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a bubble in early 2011 in the overall market as well as in the mass segment but not in the luxury segment. This result suggests that the bubble in early 2011 in the Hong Kong real estate market came more strongly from the mass segment under the demand pressure from end‐users of small‐to‐medium sized apartments.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Singapore Management University, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 31-2012.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series
Other versions of this item:
- Matthew S. Yiu & Jun Yu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market," Working Papers CoFie-03-2012, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-08-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-SEA-2012-08-23 (South East Asia)
- NEP-URE-2012-08-23 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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