IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v46y2014i4p643-664.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Making Weak Instrument Sets Stronger: Factor‐Based Estimation of Inflation Dynamics and a Monetary Policy Rule

Author

Listed:
  • HARUN MIRZA
  • LIDIA STORJOHANN

Abstract

The problem of weak identification has recently attracted attention in the analysis of structural macroeconomic models. Using robust methods can result in large confidence sets making precise inference difficult. We overcome this problem in the analysis of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and a forward‐looking Taylor rule by employing stronger instruments. We suggest exploiting information from a large macroeconomic data set by generating factors and using them as additional instruments. This approach results in stronger instrument sets and hence smaller weak‐identification robust confidence sets. It allows us to conclude that there has been a shift toward more active monetary policy from the pre‐Volcker regime to the Volcker–Greenspan tenure.

Suggested Citation

  • Harun Mirza & Lidia Storjohann, 2014. "Making Weak Instrument Sets Stronger: Factor‐Based Estimation of Inflation Dynamics and a Monetary Policy Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 643-664, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:4:p:643-664
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12120
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12120?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Instrumental Variable Estimation In A Data Rich Environment," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1577-1606, December.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    8. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    9. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, May.
    12. Alexei Onatski, 2009. "Testing Hypotheses About the Number of Factors in Large Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1447-1479, September.
    13. Klaus Adam & Mario Padula, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics And Subjective Expectations In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 13-25, January.
    14. Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1161-1172, September.
    15. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jérôme Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Factor analysis in a model with rational expectations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 271-286, July.
    16. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    17. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    18. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2004. "Weak Identification of Forward‐looking Models in Monetary Economics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 609-635, September.
    19. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    20. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    21. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    22. Olivier Coibion, 2010. "Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 87-101, February.
    23. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    24. Kleibergen, Frank & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2009. "Weak Instrument Robust Tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 293-311.
    25. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Identifying the Sources of Instabilities in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1186-1204, November.
    26. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-448, June.
    27. Frank Kleibergen, 2005. "Testing Parameters in GMM Without Assuming that They Are Identified," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1103-1123, July.
    28. Massimiliano Marcellino & Carlo A. Favero & Francesca Neglia, 2005. "Principal components at work: the empirical analysis of monetary policy with large data sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 603-620.
    29. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Some New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 491-503, March.
    30. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Trebbi & Eric Weese, 2019. "Insurgency and Small Wars: Estimation of Unobserved Coalition Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 463-496, March.
    2. Omer Bayar, 2022. "Reducing large datasets to improve the identification of estimated policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 113-140, July.
    3. Max-Sebastian Dov`i, 2021. "Inference on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Very Many Instrumental Variables," Papers 2101.09543, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    4. repec:kob:wpaper:1628 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bayar, Omer, 2018. "Weak instruments and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-317.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mirza, Harun & Storjohann, Lidia, 2011. "Making a Weak Instrument Set Stronger: Factor-Based Estimation of the Taylor Rule," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 13/2011, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    2. Omer Bayar, 2022. "Reducing large datasets to improve the identification of estimated policy rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 113-140, July.
    3. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    4. Bayar, Omer, 2018. "Weak instruments and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-317.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    6. Paul Hubert & Harun Mirza, 2019. "The role of forward‐ and backward‐looking information for inflation expectations formation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 733-748, December.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3v5mev848s8148gjqcbf4mva5q is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2009. "Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 375-398, June.
    9. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
    10. Krogh, Tord S., 2015. "Macro frictions and theoretical identification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 191-204.
    11. Jensen Henrik, 2011. "Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, May.
    12. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.
    13. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    14. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Factor-GMM estimation with large sets of possibly weak instruments," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2655-2675, November.
    15. Khalaf, Lynda & Lin, Zhenjiang, 2021. "Projection-based inference with particle swarm optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    16. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
    17. Guido Ascari & Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2021. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for investment in the US," Papers 2107.08713, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    18. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    19. Carvalho, Carlos & Nechio, Fernanda & Tristão, Tiago, 2021. "Taylor rule estimation by OLS," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 140-154.
    20. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A. & Henry, Jérôme & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Factor analysis in a New-Keynesian model," Working Paper Series 510, European Central Bank.
    21. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jérôme Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Factor analysis in a model with rational expectations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 271-286, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:4:p:643-664. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.