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On The Dynamics Of The Israeli-Arab Arms Race

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  • Aamer S. Abu-Qarn

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

  • Suleiman Abu-Bader

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of Pesaran and Shin (1998). Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel’s to Arab’s military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel’s and Jordan’s military spending.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0809.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0809

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Keywords: Arms race; Middle East; Israeli-Arab conflict; Causality; Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition;

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References

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  1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  2. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Structural Breaks in Military Expenditures: Evidence for Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria," Working Papers 231, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  3. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
  4. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  5. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  6. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  7. Seiglie, Carlos & Liu, Peter C., 2002. "Arms races in the developing world: some policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 693-705, November.
  8. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-37, November.
  9. Julide Yildirim & Nadir Ocal, 2006. "Arms Race And Economic Growth: The Case Of India And Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 37-45.
  10. Zapata, Hector O. & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 1996. "Monte Carlo Evidence On Cointegration And Causation," Staff Papers 31690, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
  11. McGuire, Martin C, 1987. "Foreign Assistance, Investment, and Defense: A Methodological Study with an Application to Israel, 1960-1979," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(4), pages 847-73, July.
  12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  13. Michael Intriljgator & Dagobert Brito, 2000. "Arms Races," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 45-54.
  14. Ron Smith & J. Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2000. "The econometrics of arms races," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 31-43.
  15. Michael Beenstock, 1998. "Country survey XI: Defence and the Israeli economy," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 171-222.
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Cited by:
  1. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Yasmine M. Abdelfattah & J. Paul Dunne & Shadwa Zaher, 2012. "The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt," Working Papers 1210, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.

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