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Exchange rates and fundamentals: a generalization

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  • James M. Nason
  • John H. Rogers

Abstract

Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than 20 years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out of sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard-present value model (PVM) because it predicts random walk exchange rate dynamics if the discount factor approaches one and fundamentals have a unit root. This paper generalizes the Engel and West (EW) hypothesis to the larger class of open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The EW hypothesis is shown to hold for a canonical open economy DSGE model. We show that all the predictions of the standard-PVM carry over to the DSGE-PVM. The DSGE-PVM also yields an unobserved components (UC) models that we estimate using Bayesian methods and a quarterly Canadian-U.S. sample. Bayesian model evaluation reveals that the data support a UC model that calibrates the discount factor to one implying the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar exchange rate is a random walk dominated by permanent cross-country monetary and productivity shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 948.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:948

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 7309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
  3. Vicente Tuesta & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Pau Rabanal, 2009. "Cointegrated TFP Processes and International Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 09/212, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, 02.
  5. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 12/13, International Monetary Fund.

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