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VAR Models as Structural Approximations

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Author Info
Ray C. Fair () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

This paper presents a way of estimating how accurate VAR models are likely to be for answering structural questions. Data are generated from a dynamic deterministic solution of a structural model; a VAR model is estimated using a subset of these data; and the properties of the VAR model are compared to the properties of the structural model. This procedure has the advantage of eliminating the effects of error terms, since the data are generated for a deterministic simulation. The results show that the VAR models do not seem to be good structural approximations.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d08b/d0856-r.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 856R.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 1987
Date of revision: Mar 1989
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:856r

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1982-1), pages 107-164. [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert B. Litterman, 1979. "Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions," Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 49-99. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1381-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2008-8-18.


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