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Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile

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  • José De Gregorio
  • Felipe Labbé

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the copper price on macroeconomic performance in Chile. We explore particular features of the Chilean business cycle focusing on economic activity and the real exchange rate. We find that the Chilean economy has become increasingly resilient to copper price shocks in the last twenty-five years, and especially during this last decade. The evidence shows that output volatility has dramatically decreased over the last twenty years, and the contribution of copper price fluctuations to output volatility has also declined. Moreover, the real exchange rate has acted as a shock absorber, and although during the last decade its short-run volatility has increased, its longrun volatility has remained stable and more recently has slightly declined. The decliningimpact of copper prices on the business cycle is due to macroeconomic policies. The evidence shows that a flexible exchange rate, a rule-based fiscal policy, and a flexible inflation targeting regime play a central role in these results.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 640.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:640

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Luis Felipe Céspedes C. & Jorge A. Fornero & Jordi Galí, 2011. "Non-Ricardian Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 79-107, August.
  3. Larraín B., Felipe & Parro, Francisco, 2008. "Chile menos volátil," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(299), pages 563-596, julio-sep.
  4. Bravo-Ortega, Claudio & de Gregorio, Jose, 2005. "The relative richness of the poor? natural resources, human capital, and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3484, The World Bank.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  6. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
  7. Juan Pablo Medina Guzman & Ruy Lama, 2010. "Is Exchange Rate Stabilization an Appropriate Cure for the Dutch Disease?," IMF Working Papers 10/182, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Gelb, Alan & Tordo, Silvana & Halland, Havard & Arfaa, Noora & Smith, Gregory, 2014. "Sovereign wealth funds and long-term development finance : risks and opportunities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6776, The World Bank.
  2. Jair N. OJeda & Julián A. Parra Polanía & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2014. "Natural-Resource Booms, Fiscal Rules and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 807, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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