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Uncover Latent PPP by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach: Evidence from five OECD countries

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Qin, Duo

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Abstract

This study explores a new modelling approach to bridge the gap between the bilateral setting of one ?domestic? economy facing one ?foreign? entity in theory and multilateral country data in reality. Under the approach, purchasing power parity (PPP) is embedded in latent disequilibrium factors, being extracted from a large set of bilateral price disparities; the factors are then used as error-correction leading indicators to explain exchange rate and inflation. Modelling experiments on five OECD countries using monthly data show promising results, which reverse the common belief that PPP is at best a very long-run relationship at the macro level. --

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2007-29.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:5734

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Related research
Keywords: PPP; law of one price; dynamic factor; error correction;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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  1. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 11521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43, January.
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  3. Alexei Onatski, 2005. "Determining the number of factors from empirical distribution of eigenvalues," Discussion Papers 0405-19, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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