A multilateral currency union removes the intraregional exchange rates but not the union rate variability with the rest of the world. The intraregional exchange rate variability is thus latent. A two-step procedure is developed to measure the variability. The measured variables are used to model inflation and intraregional trade growth of individual union members. The resulting models form the base for counterfactual simulations of the union impact. Application to ASEAN+3 shows that the intraregional variability consists of mainly short-run shocks, which have significantly affected the inflation and trade growth of major ASEAN+3 members, and that a union would reduce inflation and promote intraregional trade on the whole but the benefits facing each member vary and may not be significant enough to warrant a vote for the union.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number
631.
Find related papers by JEL classification: F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: