Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

How Much Intraregional Exchange Rate Variability Could a Currency Union Remove? The Case of ASEAN+3

Contents:

Author Info

  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Tao Tan

    (Tianjin University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

A multilateral currency union removes the intraregional exchange rates but not the union rate variability with the rest of the world. The intraregional exchange rate variability is thus latent. A two-step procedure is developed to measure the variability. The measured variables are used to model inflation and intraregional trade growth of individual union members. The resulting models form the base for counterfactual simulations of the union impact. Application to ASEAN+3 shows that the intraregional variability consists of mainly short-run shocks, which have significantly affected the inflation and trade growth of major ASEAN+3 members, and that a union would reduce inflation and promote intraregional trade on the whole but the benefits facing each member vary and may not be significant enough to warrant a vote for the union.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk/papers/doc/wp631.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 631.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp631

Contact details of provider:
Postal: London E1 4NS
Phone: +44 (0) 20 7882 5096
Fax: +44 (0) 20 8983 3580
Web page: http://www.econ.qmul.ac.uk
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Currency union; Latent variables; Dynamic factor model; Simulation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, 07.
  2. n/a, 2002. "Credibility of the Russian Stabilisation Programme in 1995-98," NIESR Discussion Papers 149, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  3. Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Currency Unions," Scholarly Articles 4551795, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 1997. "Technology and Bilateral Trade," NBER Working Papers 6253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Eiji Ogawa & Junko Shimizu, 2006. "AMU Deviation Indicator for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia and its Relation with Effective Exchange Rates," Discussion papers 06002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  7. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, 01.
  8. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
  9. Moshirian, Fariborz, 2009. "Can an Asia Pacific Community, similar to the European Community, emerge?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 2-8, January.
  10. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2007. "Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 52-60, January.
  12. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Iwatsubo, 2009. "External Adjustments and Coordinated Exchange Rate Policy in Asia," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-048, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  13. Carlos Cortinhas, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in ASEAN: Implications for the Prospects of Monetary Integration in the Region," NIPE Working Papers 2/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  14. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
  15. Koedijk, Kees & Tims, Ben & Van Dijk, Mathijs A, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Rose, Andrew K, 2003. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 4341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Moshirian, Fariborz, 2007. "Global financial services and a global single currency," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-9, January.
  18. Duo Qin, 2006. "Uncover Latent PPP by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach: Evidence from Five OECD Countries," Working Papers 575, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  19. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
  20. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane, 2005. "New European Union members on their way to adopting the Euro: An analysis of macroeconomic disturbances," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 303-320, February.
  21. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2006. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 12395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. McCloskey, Donald N, 1985. "The Loss Function Has Been Mislaid: The Rhetoric of Significance Tests," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 201-05, May.
  23. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
  24. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A. & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2005. "Welfare implications of joining a common currency," Working Paper Series 0445, European Central Bank.
  25. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Minford, Patrick & Rastogi, Anupam, 1992. "The Price of EMU Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 656, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  27. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 315-338.
  28. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas F., 2007. "Measuring Regional Market Integration in Developing Asia: a Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 8, Asian Development Bank.
  29. Eiji Ogawa & Junko Shimizu, 2006. "AMU Deviation Indicator for Coordinated Exchange Rate Policies in East Asia and its Relation with Effective Exchange Rates," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-131, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Moerman, Gerard A. & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2010. "Inflation risk and international asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 840-855, April.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp631. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nick Vriend).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.