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El Impulso Crediticio y el PBI en el Perú: 1992–2009

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  • Lahura, Erick

    ()
    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Vega, Hugo

    ()
    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

El presente trabajo realiza una evaluación empírica recursiva de la relación entre el crédito y el producto usando datos trimestrales de la economía peruana para el período 1992 – 2009. Dada la naturaleza de las series, el análisis econométrico se basa en la estimación de un modelo vectorial de corrección de errores (modelo VEC o VECM) a partir del cual se establece la existencia de una relación dinámica entre la tasa de crecimiento del producto y el “impulso crediticio”, este último definido como el cambio en la tasa de crecimiento del crédito. Los resultados muestran que el impulso crediticio en soles contiene información relevante para predecir la tasa de crecimiento del producto en el corto plazo.

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File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-01-2011.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2011-001.

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Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2011-001

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  3. Michael Biggs & Thomas Mayer & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Credit and economic recovery," DNB Working Papers 218, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
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