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GDP Growth and Credit Data

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Author Info

  • Ermişoğlu, Ergun
  • Akcelik, Yasin
  • Oduncu, Arif

Abstract

It is a well-known fact that there is a strong relationship between bank credits and economic activity. Thus, it is a reasonable question whether credit data can be used in nowcasting GDP growth. It is important for policymakers to make on-time decisions with the most available data and nowcasting is an important tool when policies in question are needed to be made based on current figures. Most macroeconomic variables are made available to public after a considerable delay; however, banking credit data may be very valuable for the early estimate of current GDP as it is available only with a few days delay. In this paper, we aim to investigate the feasibility of using credit data in explaining the variability in Turkish GDP growth and as well as nowcasting it. For this purpose, we use credit impulse and new borrowing, two measures of credit flows. We show that credit impulse and new borrowing are significant in explaining the pattern of the Turkish GDP growth and they have significant contribution to nowcasting it.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 46613.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46613

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Keywords: Nowcasting GDP; Credit Impulse; New Borrowing;

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References

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  1. Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun & Mahmut Gunay, 2012. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP Growth," Working Papers 1233, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
  3. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
  5. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
  6. A. Hakan Kara & S. Tolga Tiryaki, 2013. "Kredi Ivmesi ve Iktisadi Konjonktur," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1310, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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Cited by:
  1. Fatih Ozatay, 2013. "Turkey's Distressing Dance with Capital Flows," Working Papers 1306, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2013.

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