GDP Growth and Credit Data
AbstractIt is a well-known fact that there is a strong relationship between bank credit and economic activity. Thus, it is a reasonable question whether credit data can be used in nowcasting GDP growth. It is important for policymakers to make on-time decisions with the most available data. Most macroeconomic variables are made available to public after a considerable delay; however, bank credit data may be very valuable for the early estimate of current GDP as it is available only with a few days delay. In this paper, we aim to investigate the feasibility of using credit data in explaining the variability in Turkish GDP growth as well as nowcasting it. For this purpose, we use credit impulse and new borrowing, two measures of credit flows. We show that both are significant in explaining the pattern of the Turkish GDP growth and have significant contribution in nowcasting it.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1327.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
Nowcasting GDP; Credit Impulse; New Borrowing;
Other versions of this item:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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