Kredi Ivmesi ve Iktisadi Konjonktur

[TR] Bu not, kredi dinamikleri ile ekonomik buyume arasindaki konjonkturel iliskinin anlasilmasina katkida bulunmak amaciyla, “kredi ivmesi” kavramini tanitarak Turkiye icin hesaplamaktadir. Ozellikle (2011- 2012 yillari gibi) kredilerin artis hizinda onemli degisimler yasanan donemleri takiben, iktisadi faaliyet-kredi iliskisinde kredi buyumesinin yani sira kredi ivmesinin de dikkate alinmasi gerektigi vurgulanmaktadir. Bu cercevede, 2013 yilinda TCMB tarafindan referans olarak alinan yuzde 15 civarinda bir kredi buyumesinin kredi ivmesinde belirgin bir artis anlamina geldigi ve iktisadi faaliyette bir onceki yila gore hizlanma ima ettigi gosterilmektedir. Bu sekilde bakildiginda, 2013 yili icin yuzde 15 civarinda bir kredi buyumesi, kamuoyundaki yaygin kaninin aksine, Orta Vadeli Program’daki iktisadi buyume projeksiyonlariyla buyuk olcude uyumlu gorunmektedir. [EN] This note highlights the role of “credit impulse” in explaining the relationship between aggregate credit and economic growth cycles. We argue that credit impulse has an important role in reconciling the credit developments with aggregate demand especially during sharp changes in the credit growth. In this context, we show that an annual credit growth rate of 15 percent, which is taken as a reference rate for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey for the year 2013, implies a significant boost in credit impulse and acceleration in economic activity. Our analysis suggest that, contrary to the public perceptions, 15 percent annual growth rate of credit in 2013 is largely consistent with the economic growth projections presented in the Medium Term Economic Program.