IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkie/32955.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Erholung der Weltkonjunktur ohne große Dynamik

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft expandiert seit dem Frühjahr 2009 wieder. Die Erholung von der schweren Rezession dürfte sich in den kommenden beiden Jahren fortsetzen. Allerdings bleibt die Weltkonjunktur vorerst gespalten. Während die Produktion in den Schwellenländern recht kräftig zulegen dürfte, fasst die Konjunktur in den Industrieländern aufgrund der Anpassungsprozesse im Gefolge der Finanzkrise nur zögerlich Tritt. Vor allem wegen einer höheren Dynamik in den Schwellenländern haben wir unsere Prognose für den Anstieg des globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts seit September spürbar - um 0,2 Prozentpunkte für 2009 und 0,8 Prozentpunkte für 2010 - nach oben revidiert. Wir rechnen nun damit, dass die Weltproduktion im kommenden Jahr um 3,6 Prozent zulegt, nach einem Rückgang um 1 Prozent in diesem Jahr. 2011 wird sich der Anstieg nochmals leicht auf 3,9 Prozent beschleunigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltkonjunktur ohne große Dynamik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32955, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:32955
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32955/1/61841570X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2009. "Looking forward: Exiting unconventional monetary policy," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32849, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
    3. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Konjunktureinbruch im Euroraum," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28802, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Michael Biggs & Thomas Mayer & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Credit and economic recovery," DNB Working Papers 218, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-277, July.
    7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Die deutsche Wirtschaft im Sog der Weltrezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28657, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Kiel Policy Brief 15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2008. "Immobilienkrise in den Vereinigten Staaten: Historischer Vergleich und Implikationen für den Konjunkturverlauf," Kiel Discussion Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
    12. Ahrens, Steffen, 2009. "Fiscal responses to the financial crisis," Kiel Policy Brief 11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    14. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft im Abwärtsstrudel," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28722, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 470/471, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Aufschwung lässt auf sich warten," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32954, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft: Tiefpunkt der Produktion erreicht," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Kiel Policy Brief 22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 47873, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Corrado, Luisa & Rossi, Isolina, 2019. "Anatomy of credit-less recoveries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Abiad, Abdul & Li, Bin Grace, 2011. "Creditless Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2016. "A Note On Banking And Housing Crises And The Strength Of Recoveries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(7), pages 1924-1933, October.
    7. Adalid Ramón & Falagiarda Matteo, 2020. "How Repayments Manipulate Our Perceptions about Loan Dynamics after a Boom," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(6), pages 697-742, December.
    8. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 470/471, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Estimating the shape of economic crises under heterogeneity," Kiel Working Papers 1520, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    13. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2019. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts‐Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 62-78, February.
    14. Barthélémy, Sylvain & Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2020. "Worldwide economic recoveries from financial crises through the decades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    15. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    16. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    17. Fabrizio Coricelli & Marco Frigerio, 2015. "The Credit-Output Relationship During the Recovery from Recession," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 551-579, July.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Greece: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/155, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Linus Holtermann & Christian Hundt, 2018. "Hierarchically structured determinants and phase related patterns of economic resilience. An empirical case study for European regions," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2018-02, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    20. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:32955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.