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Erholung der Weltkonjunktur ohne große Dynamik

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Author Info

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft expandiert seit dem Frühjahr 2009 wieder. Die Erholung von der schweren Rezession dürfte sich in den kommenden beiden Jahren fortsetzen. Allerdings bleibt die Weltkonjunktur vorerst gespalten. Während die Produktion in den Schwellenländern recht kräftig zulegen dürfte, fasst die Konjunktur in den Industrieländern aufgrund der Anpassungsprozesse im Gefolge der Finanzkrise nur zögerlich Tritt. Vor allem wegen einer höheren Dynamik in den Schwellenländern haben wir unsere Prognose für den Anstieg des globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts seit September spürbar – um 0,2 Prozentpunkte für 2009 und 0,8 Prozentpunkte für 2010 – nach oben revidiert. Wir rechnen nun damit, dass die Weltproduktion im kommenden Jahr um 3,6 Prozent zulegt, nach einem Rückgang um 1 Prozent in diesem Jahr. 2011 wird sich der Anstieg nochmals leicht auf 3,9 Prozent beschleunigen. --

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy with number 32955.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:32955

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  1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
  3. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2009. "Looking forward: Exiting unconventional monetary policy," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32849, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  5. Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Die deutsche Wirtschaft im Sog der Weltrezession," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28657, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft im Abwärtsstrudel," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28722, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  7. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32839, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  8. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2008. "Immobilienkrise in den Vereinigten Staaten: Historischer Vergleich und Implikationen für den Konjunkturverlauf," Kiel Discussion Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  9. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Kiel Policy Brief 15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
  11. Michael Biggs & Thomas Mayer & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Credit and economic recovery," DNB Working Papers 218, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  12. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  13. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  14. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Do we face a credit crunch?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32979, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  15. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Konjunktureinbruch im Euroraum," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28802, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  16. Ahrens, Steffen, 2009. "Fiscal responses to the financial crisis," Kiel Policy Brief 11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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Cited by:
  1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 470/471, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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