Determinants of credit-less recoveries
AbstractThis paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following. First, our frequency analysis confirms earlier findings that credit-less recoveries are not at all rare events. Moreover, our analysis shows that the frequency of credit-less recoveries doubles after a banking or currency crisis. Second, results from estimated panel probit models suggest that credit-less recoveries are typically preceded by large declines in economic activity and financial stress, in particular if private sector indebtedness is high and the country is reliant on foreign capital inflows. Finally, we find that the predicted probability of a credit-less recovery in central and eastern European EU Member States during the coming years varies across countries, but is relatively high in the Baltic States. JEL Classification: C23, C25, E32, E51, G01
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1358.
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-07-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-07-21 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2011-07-21 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2011-07-21 (European Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-07-21 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Roland, Isabelle, 2011. "How do credit conditions shape economic recoveries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Brown & Steven Ongena & Alexander Popov & Pinar Yeşin, 2011.
"Who needs credit and who gets credit in Eastern Europe?,"
CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 26(65), pages 93-130, January.
- Brown, M. & Ongena, S. & Popov, A. & Yesin, P., 2010. "Who Needs Credit and Who Gets Credit in Eastern Europe?," Discussion Paper 2010-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Martin Brown & Steven Ongena & Alexander Popov & Pinar Yesin, 2010. "Who Needs Credit and Who Gets Credit in Eastern Europe?," Working Papers 2010-09, Swiss National Bank.
- Brown, Martin & Ongena, Steven & Popov, Alexander & Yesin, Pinar, 2012. "Who needs credit and who gets credit in Eastern Europe?," Working Paper Series 1421, European Central Bank.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Matias Braun & Borja Larrain, 2004.
"Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-industry Evidence,"
- Matías Braun & Borja Larrain, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1097-1128, 06.
- Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1997.
"Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis,"
IMF Working Papers
97/168, International Monetary Fund.
- Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008.
"Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2007. "Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery," BIS Working Papers 226, Bank for International Settlements.
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006.
"Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises,"
Research Department Publications
4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006. "Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises," BIS Working Papers 221, Bank for International Settlements.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1992.
"Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
- Liesenfeld, Roman & Moura, Guilherme V. & Richard, Jean-François, 2009.
"Determinants and dynamics of current account reversals: an empirical analysis,"
Economics Working Papers
2009,04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Roman Liesenfeld & Guilherme Valle Moura & Jean-François Richard, 2010. "Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 486-517, 08.
- Elisabetta Falcetti & Merxe Tudela, 2006. "Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 445-471, 08.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.