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Determinants of credit-less recoveries

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  • Bijsterbosch, Martin
  • Dahlhaus, Tatjana
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    Abstract

    This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants of credit-less recoveries. Our main findings are the following. First, our frequency analysis confirms earlier findings that credit-less recoveries are not at all rare events. Moreover, our analysis shows that the frequency of credit-less recoveries doubles after a banking or currency crisis. Second, results from estimated panel probit models suggest that credit-less recoveries are typically preceded by large declines in economic activity and financial stress, in particular if private sector indebtedness is high and the country is reliant on foreign capital inflows. Finally, we find that the predicted probability of a credit-less recovery in central and eastern European EU Member States during the coming years varies across countries, but is relatively high in the Baltic States. JEL Classification: C23, C25, E32, E51, G01

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1358.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2011
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111358

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    Related research

    Keywords: Credit-less Recoveries; Financial crises; Panel Probit Models;

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    1. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006. "Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises," BIS Working Papers 221, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Martin Brown & Steven Ongena & Alexander Popov & Pinar Yesin, 2010. "Who Needs Credit and Who Gets Credit in Eastern Europe?," Working Papers 2010-09, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
    5. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
    6. Matias Braun & Borja Larrain, 2004. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-industry Evidence," Finance 0403001, EconWPA.
    7. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    8. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Roland, Isabelle, 2011. "How do credit conditions shape economic recoveries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analyis," NBER Working Papers 6310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Roman Liesenfeld & Guilherme Valle Moura & Jean-François Richard, 2010. "Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 486-517, 08.
    11. Elisabetta Falcetti & Merxe Tudela, 2006. "Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 445-471, 08.
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