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Scarring Recessions and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Colombian Plant Dynamics

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  • Marcela Eslava
  • Arturo Galindo
  • Marc Hofstetter
  • Alejandro Izquierdo

Abstract

Using a rich dataset of Colombian manufacturing establishments, we illustrate scarring effects of recessions operating through inefficient exit induced by heterogeneous credit constraints. We show that financially constrained businesses may be forced to exit the market during recessions even if they are more productive than surviving unconstrained counterparts: an unconstrained plant with TFP at the lowest 10th percentile faces the same estimated exit probability as a constrained plant with TFP at the 79th percentile. If credit constraints affect 1/3 of businesses, we estimate aggregate TFP losses of 1.2 log points after a four year long recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcela Eslava & Arturo Galindo & Marc Hofstetter & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2010. "Scarring Recessions and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Colombian Plant Dynamics," Documentos CEDE 7711, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:007711
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    2. Giacomo Domini & Daniele Moschella, 2018. "Reallocation and productivity during the Great Recession:evidence from French manufacturing firms," LEM Papers Series 2018/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Bob Rijkers, 2013. "Do Crises Catalyze Creative Destruction? Firm-level Evidence from Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1788-1810, December.
    4. Eslava, Marcela & Maffioli, Alessandro & Meléndez Arjona, Marcela, 2012. "Second-tier Government Banks and Firm Performance: Micro-Evidence from Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3825, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Marcela Eslava & Xavier Freixas, 2021. "Public Development Banks and Credit Market Imperfections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1121-1149, August.
    6. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John Haltiwanger, 2016. "Reallocation in the Great Recession: Cleansing or Not?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 293-331.
    7. Carlos Quicazán & Diana Fernández Moreno & Dairo Estrada, 2012. "Credit determinants and its impact of firms' growth in Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 067, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Uppenberg, Kristian, 2011. "Economic growth in the US and the EU: a sectoral decomposition," EIB Papers 2/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    9. Rafaela Bastidas & Nicolás Acosta, 2019. "Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in Ecuador: formal, semi-formal and informal firms," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-29, December.
    10. Elias Albagli & Alberto Naudon & Benjamin Garcia & Matias Tapia & Sebastian Guarda, 2019. "Job Ladders and Labor Productivity Dynamics," 2019 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Strauss, Hubert, 2011. "Productivity and growth in Europe: Editor's introduction," EIB Papers 1/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    12. Dávila-Ospina, Andrés O., 2023. "Hysteresis From Monetary Policy Mistakes: How Bad Could It Be?," Documentos CEDE 21003, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Anderson, Gareth & Riley, Rebecca & Young, Garry, 2019. "Distressed banks, distorted decisions?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100947, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Patricio Toro, 2019. "The Persistent Effect of a Credit Crunch on Output and Productivity: Technical or Allocative Efficiency?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 837, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Arnold, Jens & Scarpetta, Stefano & Nicoletti, Giuseppe, 2011. "Regulation, resource reallocation and productivity growth," EIB Papers 4/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    16. Altomonte, Carlo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 2011. "The role of international production sharing in EU productivity and competitiveness," EIB Papers 3/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    17. Haltiwanger, John, 2011. "Firm dynamics and productivity growth," EIB Papers 5/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Plant exit; credit constraints; business cycles; recessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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