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Scarring Recessions and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Colombian Firm Dynamics

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Author Info

  • Marcela Eslava

    ()

  • Arturo Galindo

    ()

  • Marc Hofstetter

    ()

  • Alejandro Izquierdo

    ()

Abstract

Using a rich dataset of Colombian manufacturing establishments between 1995 and 2004, we illustrate potential scarring effects of recessions operating through credit constraints. In contrast with the view that recessions are times of cleansing, we find that financially constrained businesses might be forced to exit the market during recessions even if they are highly productive. For instance, during recessions, an establishment with TFP at the lowest 10th percentile but not facing credit constraints has the same exit probability as a constrained plant with TFP at least as high as the 39th percentile. The gap is much smaller during expansions. The contribution of the paper is threefold. First, it evaluates the role played by credit constraints in explaining firm dynamics throughout the business cycle, a phenomenon the literature has dealt with mostly from a theoretical standpoint. Second, it sheds light on the implied long-run consequences of exits induced by lack of credit on efficiency. Finally, it is the only study we know of providing direct evidence to judge the empirical merits of proposed micro foundations behind the long-run consequences of crises.

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File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/publicaciones/dcede2010-27.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 007711.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000089:007711

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Keywords: Plant exit; credit constraints; business cycles; recessions;

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References

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  1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993. "Monetary policy, business cycles and the behavior of small manufacturing firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Gibson, John K & Harris, Richard I D, 1996. "Trade Liberalisation and Plant Exit in New Zealand Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 521-29, August.
  3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA.
  4. Marcela Eslava & John Haltiwanger & Adriana Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2010. "Factor Adjustments after Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 378-391, May.
  5. Abdul Abiad & Petya Koeva Brooks & Irina Tytell & Daniel Leigh & Ravi Balakrishnan, 2009. "What’S the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 09/245, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 394-425, March.
  7. Bloom, Nicholas & Draca, Mirko & Van Reenen, John, 2011. "Trade induced technical change? The impact of Chinese imports on innovation, IT and productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 8236, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Eslava, Marcela & Haltiwanger, John & Kugler, Adriana & Kugler, Maurice, 2004. "The effects of structural reforms on productivity and profitabality enhancing reallocation: evidence from Colombia," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0408, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  9. Barlevy, Gadi, 2003. "Credit market frictions and the allocation of resources over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1795-1818, November.
  10. Matias Braun & Borja Larrain, 2004. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-industry Evidence," Finance 0403001, EconWPA.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 12101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ouyang, Min, 2009. "The scarring effect of recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 184-199, March.
  13. Laurence Ball & Nicolás Roux & Marc Hofstetter, 2013. "Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 397-424, July.
  14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration," IDB Publications 6747, Inter-American Development Bank.
  15. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper, 1992. "The Aggregate Implications Of Machine Replacement: Theory And Evidence," Working Papers 92-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  16. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Jonathan A. Parker, 2006. "Taxes and Growth in a Financially Underdeveloped Country: Evidence from the Chilean Investment Boom," NBER Working Papers 12104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Strauss, Hubert, 2011. "Productivity and growth in Europe: Editor's introduction," EIB Papers 1/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  2. Duverger, Catherine & van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno, 2011. "Determinants of productivity growth: Science and technology policies and the contribution of R&D," EIB Papers 9/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  3. Haltiwanger, John, 2011. "Firm dynamics and productivity growth," EIB Papers 5/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  4. Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Bob Rijkers, 2013. "Do Crises Catalyze Creative Destruction? Firm-level Evidence from Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1788-1810, December.
  5. Uppenberg, Kristian, 2011. "Economic growth in the US and the EU: a sectoral decomposition," EIB Papers 2/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  6. Altomonte, Carlo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 2011. "The role of international production sharing in EU productivity and competitiveness," EIB Papers 3/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  7. Carlos Quicazán & Diana Fernández Moreno & Dairo Estrada, . "Credit determinants and its impact of firms' growth in Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 067, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Arnold, Jens & Scarpetta, Stefano & Nicoletti, Giuseppe, 2011. "Regulation, resource reallocation and productivity growth," EIB Papers 4/2011, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  9. Lucia Foster & Cheryl Grim & John Haltiwanger, 2013. "Reallocation In The Great Recession: Cleansing Or Not?," Working Papers 13-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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