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Households borrowing during a creditless recovery

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  • Jaanika Meriküll

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the contribution of households to the creditless recovery. We use Estonian cross-sectional microdata on households\' assets, liabilities, income, expectations and intention to use credit in 2001-2010. The results indicate that (1) there was a large-scale drop in households demand for credit during the recession and sluggish recovery after the recession. (2) One third of the sluggish recovery in credit demand is explained by changed household endowments such as income reduction and lower income expectations, while two thirds is explained by changed behavioural relations such as renters taking mortgages less often and employed individuals using credit less often. (3) Changed behavioural relations explain a higher proportion of the credit demand drop in longer-term credit such as loans than in shorter-term credit such as credit card purchases. (4) 44% of households who wanted to use credit were credit constrained during the recovery and households with lower credit worthiness were more likely to apply for credit.

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    File URL: http://www.eestipank.info/pub/en/dokumendid/publikatsioonid/seeriad/uuringud/_2012/_2_2012/_wp_212.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Estonia in its series Bank of Estonia Working Papers with number wp2012-2.

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    Date of creation: 22 Feb 2012
    Date of revision: 22 Feb 2012
    Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2012-2

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    Related research

    Keywords: households borrowing; business cycles; micro-econometric evidence; Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition;

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    1. Iacoviello, Matteo & Pavan, Marina, 2013. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-238.
    2. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006. "Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises," BIS Working Papers 221, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Rajashri Chakrabarti & Donghoon Lee & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Household Debt and Saving During the 2007 Recession," NBER Working Papers 16999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gathergood John, 2011. "Racial Disparities in Credit Constraints in the Great Recession: Evidence from the UK," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-32, September.
    6. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2009. "Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis: US vs. Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 4310, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Duca John V. & Rosenthal Stuart S., 1993. "Borrowing Constraints, Household Debt, and Racial Discrimination in Loan Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 77-103, October.
    8. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2007. "Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery," BIS Working Papers 226, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries From Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/83, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Silvia Magri, 2007. "Italian households’ debt: the participation to the debt market and the size of the loan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 401-426, November.
    11. Bauer, Thomas & Sinning, Mathias, 2005. "Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition for Tobit Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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