Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors

Contents:

Author Info

  • Elisabetta Falcetti
  • Merxe Tudela

Abstract

The paper investigates the causes of currency crises in emerging markets. We estimate the probability of a currency crisis by applying maximum smoothly simulated likelihood to a dynamic LDV model. This approach allows us to take explicit account of the existence of intertemporal links between crises. The results show that currency crises are influenced by real, monetary, debt and global variables. Past banking crises are significant determinants of the probability of currency crises. Moreover, countries that sharply devalued in the past are less prone to experience another currency crisis. We find evidence of unobserved heterogeneity, which may reflect differences in the countries' institutional/historical background. Finally, the determinants of currency crises differ by type of exchange rate regime. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2006.00172.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 68 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 445-471

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:68:y:2006:i:4:p:445-471

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Dahlhaus, Tatjana, 2011. "Determinants of credit-less recoveries," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1358, European Central Bank.
  2. Moura, Guilherme V. & Richard, Jean-François & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2007. "Dynamic Panel Probit Models for Current Account Reversals and their Efficient Estimation," Economics Working Papers 2007,11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  3. Liesenfeld, Roman & Moura, Guilherme V. & Richard, Jean-François, 2009. "Determinants and dynamics of current account reversals: an empirical analysis," Economics Working Papers 2009,04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  4. Vesna Bucevska, 2011. "An analysis of financial crisis by an early warning system model: The case of the EU candidate countries," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 13-26, January.
  5. Martin Burda & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of a Probit Panel Data Model with Unobserved Individual Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors," Working Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Economics tecipa-321, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  6. Matthew S. Yiu & Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2009. "Econometric Approach to Early Warnings of Vulnerability in the Banking System and Currency Markets for Hong Kong and Other EMEAP Economies," Working Papers 0908, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  7. Aßmann, Christian, 2011. "Assessing the effect of current account and currency crises on economic growth," BERG Working Paper Series 80, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  8. Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Vinson Pham, 2012. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: From Dynamic Quantile to Dynamic Binary Tests," Working Papers halshs-00671658, HAL.
  9. Aßmann, Christian, 2007. "Determinants and Costs of Current Account Reversals under Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation," Economics Working Papers 2007,17, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  10. Adil Naamane, 2012. "Peut-on prévenir les crises financières ?," Working Papers 2011-2012_7, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised May 2012.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:68:y:2006:i:4:p:445-471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.