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Explaining the Twin Crises in Indonesia

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  • Rahmatina A. Kasri

    (Department of Economics Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia)

Abstract

The co-existence of the ‘twin’ banking and currency crises in emerging market economies has raised concerns regarding the underlying causes and potential remedies. Literatures suggest that there are at least three major approaches that could be used to explain the phenomenon: the microeconomic perspective which emphasizes the role of asymmetric information problems in the banking sector, the macroeconomics perspectives that link the financial liberalization with the banking sector risky behaviors, and the new institutional perspectives incorporating political and financial institutions into the analysis of crisis. Using these frameworks to analyze the twin crises in Indonesia during the 1997-2000 periods, it is suggested that the crises are rooted in and could be well-explained by the asymmetric information model. Although the other models also influence the co-existence of banking and currency crises, it was the asymmetric information problems before and during the crises combined with political turmoil which magnified the contagion effect of the currency crisis in the neighboring countries to the Indonesian economy. Prior to the crises, moral hazard and adverse selection problems both in economic and political fields have significantly contributed to weak micro banking fundamental in the Indonesian banking system. High non-performing loans and weaknesses in the prudential regulation were also evident. Similarly, the post crises experiences demonstrated that uncertainty regarding the economic reform programs and political stability had undermined market confidence, triggered bank panics and worsened currency crisis. Findings of this study are expected to increase understanding on the determinants of twin crises as well as to provide valuable lessons in managing and maintaining robust financial sector in Indonesia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in its series Working Papers in Economics and Business with number 201102.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision: May 2011
Handle: RePEc:lpe:wpecbs:201102

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Related research

Keywords: Twin crises; financial crisis; banking crisis; Indonesian economic; institutional economics;

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References

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  1. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. 23.
  2. Hill,Hal, 2000. "The Indonesian Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521663670.
  3. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse," NBER Working Papers 1786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April.
  9. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1996. "Some Lessons from the East Asian Miracle," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(2), pages 151-77, August.
  10. Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
  11. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-93, May.
  12. Kane, Edward J. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2004. "Alternatives to blanket guarantees for containing a systemic crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 31-63, September.
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