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Credit and growth after financial crises

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  • Elod Takáts
  • Christian Upper

Abstract

We find that declining bank credit to the private sector will not necessarily constrain the economic recovery after output has bottomed out following a financial crisis. To obtain this result, we examine data from 39 financial crises, which - as the current one - were preceded by credit booms. In these crises the change in bank credit, either in real terms or relative to GDP, consistently did not correlate with growth during the first two years of the recovery. In the third and fourth year, the correlation becomes statistically significant but remains small in economic terms. The lack of association between deleveraging and the speed of recovery does not seem to arise due to limited data. In fact, our data shows that increasing competitiveness, via exchange rate depreciations, is statistically and economically significantly associated with faster recoveries. Our results contradict the current consensus that private sector deleveraging is necessarily harmful for growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 416.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:416

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Keywords: creditless recovery; financial crises; deleveraging; household debt; corporate debt;

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References

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  1. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil K, 2010. "Will the U.S. bank recapitalization succeed? Eight lessons from Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 398-417, September.
  2. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries From Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/83, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Thomas Philippon, 2010. "Debt Overhang and Recapitalization in Closed and Open Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 157-178, August.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2010. "After the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 17-60.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  6. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  7. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
  8. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Marion Kohler & Christian Upper, 2009. "Financial Crises and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 15379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wako Watanabe, 2007. "Prudential Regulation and the "Credit Crunch": Evidence from Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 639-665, 03.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  11. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2003. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Morten Bech & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2012. "Monetary policy in a downturn: Are financial crises special?," BIS Working Papers 388, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
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Cited by:
  1. Benjamin H Cohen & Michela Scatigna, 2014. "Banks and capital requirements: channels of adjustment," BIS Working Papers 443, Bank for International Settlements.

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