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Debt and Deleveraging

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  • Susan Lund
  • Charles Roxburgh
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    Abstract

    In this article, McKinsey Global Institute researchers assess the increases in debt and leverage in ten mature economies and four emerging economies – breaking down that data by each country’s financial, household, non-financial business and government sectors. The authors then analyse the sustainability of current levels of leverage in those sectors and construct a ‘heat map of deleveraging’. The map shows which sectors in which economies are most likely to deleverage. Third, the authors analyse 45 episodes of deleveraging since 1930, focusing on the 32 episodes that occurred after a financial crisis. From these episodes, the authors draw insights into the macroeconomic channels through which a country can deleverage. Finally, they discuss the policy and business implications of the findings.

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    File URL: http://www.world-economics-journal.com/Contents/ArticleOverview.aspx?ID=413
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE in its journal World Economics Journal.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 1-30

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    Handle: RePEc:wej:wldecn:413

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    1. Alberto F. Alesina & Dorian Carloni & Giampaolo Lecce, 2011. "The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Working Papers 17655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Lars Jonung, 2009. "The Swedish model for resolving the banking crisis of 1991 - 93. Seven reasons why it was successful," European Economy - Economic Papers 360, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "A tale of three countries: recovery after banking crises," Policy Contributions 663, Bruegel.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?," IMF Working Papers 05/29, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Nielsen, Mette & Pezzini, Silvia & Reinold, Kate & Williams, Richard, 2010. "The financial position of British households: evidence from the 2010 NMG Consulting survey," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 333-345.
    9. Song Han & Benjamin J. Keys & Geng Li, 2011. "Credit supply to personal bankruptcy filers: evidence from credit card mailings," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
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