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Fiscal Space in the Euro zone

Author

Listed:
  • Frantisek Hajnovic

    (National Bank of Slovakia, Research Department)

  • Juraj Zeman

    (National Bank of Slovakia, Research Department)

Abstract

This paper uses data from 1995 to 2008 to estimate debt limits in the European Union countries derived from the budgetary responses to debt levels before the crisis. Based on work by the IMF (Ostry, 2010), we present our suggested approach and estimate the fiscal reaction functions and the implied critical debt levels of EU governments. Since many countries did not take advantage of the boom years for consolidation, the fiscal space – availability of debt financing – in the euro zone has shrunk, especially in countries where the response to rising debt levels has historically been weak. We conclude by stressing a need for structural changes in budget policy (shifts in the reaction on debt) or risk default in cases where fiscal space was negative or has been squeezed.

Suggested Citation

  • Frantisek Hajnovic & Juraj Zeman, 2012. "Fiscal Space in the Euro zone," Working and Discussion Papers WP 5/2012, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fatih AKBAYIR & Ahmet Burçin YERELİ, 2019. "Estimating Fiscal Space: The Theoretical Framework of Ostry et al. Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(39).
    2. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Nerlich, Carolin & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "Fiscal rules, fiscal space and procyclical fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1872, European Central Bank.
    4. Carolin Nerlich & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2016. "Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Space, and the Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(4), pages 421-452, December.
    5. Fatih AKBAYIR & Ahmet Burçin YERELİ, 2018. "Fiscal Space and Estimating Methods," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(38).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal space; fiscal policy; public debt; consolidation; critical debt level; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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