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Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

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  • Reinhart, Carmen M.
  • Rogoff, Kenneth

Abstract

Even after one of the most severe multi-year crises on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The current phase of the official policy approach is predicated on the assumption that debt sustainability can be achieved through a mix of austerity, forbearance and growth. The claim is that advanced countries do not need to resort to the standard toolkit of emerging markets, including debt restructurings and conversions, higher inflation, capital controls and other forms of financial repression. As we document, this claim is at odds with the historical track record of most advanced economies, where debt restructuring or conversions, financial repression, and a tolerance for higher inflation, or a combination of these were an integral part of the resolution of significant past debt overhangs.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9750.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9750

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  1. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2011. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 16893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michael Reddell, 2012. "The New Zealand Debt Conversion Act 1933: a case study in coercive domestic public debt restructuring," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 38-45, March.
  5. Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, . "Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone," Working Paper 83126, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  6. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa, 2009. "Stock-Market Crashes and Depressions," NBER Working Papers 14760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
  8. Smits, J.-P. & Woltjer, P. & Ma, D., 2009. "A Dataset on Comparative Historical National Accounts, ca.1870-1950: A Time-Series Perspective," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-107, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
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  1. Le rôle des banques centrales lors du cycle financier selon Claudio Borio
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-02-17 16:58:00
  2. Alimenter l’inflation pour réduire la dette publique ?
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-06-14 17:29:00
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Cited by:
  1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 9329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Review and Evidence," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23.
  3. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabian, 2013. "Understanding Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 9310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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