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Recurrent Bubbles

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  • TAKASHI KAMIHIGASHI

Abstract

We study rational bubbles in a standard linear asset price model. We first consider a class of bubble processes driven by multiplicative iid shocks. We show that a bubble process in this class either diverges to infinity with probability one, converges to zero with probability one, or keeps fluctuating forever with probability one, depending on investors' "con dence" in expected bubble growth. We call a bubble process having the last property "recurrent." We develop sufficient conditions for a bubble process to be recurrent when it is driven by non-iid shocks, when the risk-free interest rate is not constant, and when the process is driven by non-iid shocks and the risk-free interest rate is not constant. In the last case we demonstrate via simulation that there can be a prolonged period in which both the bubble and the interest rate stay close to zero.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Japanese Economic Association in its journal Japanese Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 62 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 27-62

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecrev:v:62:y:2011:i:1:p:27-62

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References

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  1. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Working Papers 9304, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
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  3. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2003. "Almost sure convergence to zero in stochastic growth models," Discussion Paper Series 170, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised May 2005.
  4. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2001. "Necessity of Transversality Conditions for Stochastic Problems," Department of Economics Working Papers 01-02, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
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  17. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 2001. "Necessity of Transversality Conditions for Infinite Horizon Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 995-1012, July.
  18. Kiernan, E & Madan, Dilip B, 1989. "Stochastic Stability in Macro Models," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(221), pages 97-108, February.
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