AbstractWe study rational bubbles in a standard linear asset price model. We first consider a class of bubble processes driven by multiplicative iid shocks. We show that a bubble process in this class either diverges to infinity with probability one, converges to zero with probability one, or keeps fluctuating forever with probability one, depending on investors' "con dence" in expected bubble growth. We call a bubble process having the last property "recurrent." We develop sufficient conditions for a bubble process to be recurrent when it is driven by non-iid shocks, when the risk-free interest rate is not constant, and when the process is driven by non-iid shocks and the risk-free interest rate is not constant. In the last case we demonstrate via simulation that there can be a prolonged period in which both the bubble and the interest rate stay close to zero.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Japanese Economic Association in its journal Japanese Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 62 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1352-4739
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1993.
"Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles,"
9304, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Dean Foster & Sergiu Hart, 2007.
"An Operational Measure of Riskiness,"
843644000000000095, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 2003.
"Almost sure convergence to zero in stochastic growth models,"
Discussion Paper Series
170, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised May 2005.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 2006. "Almost sure convergence to zero in stochastic growth models," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 231-237, September.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 2003. "Almost Sure Convergence to Zero in Stochastic Growth Models," Discussion Paper Series 140, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 2001.
"Necessity of Transversality Conditions for Stochastic Problems,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
01-02, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
- Kamihigashi, Takashi, 2003. "Necessity of transversality conditions for stochastic problems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 140-149, March.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 2002. "Necessity of Transversality Conditions for Stochastic Problems," Discussion Paper Series 128, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 2000. "Necessity of Transversality Conditions for Stochastic Problems," Discussion Paper Series 115, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
- Ikeda, Shinsuke & Shibata, Akihisa, 1995. "Fundamentals uncertainty, bubbles, and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 199-222, May.
- George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 1998. "Uniqueness of asset prices in an exchange economy with unbounded utility," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 103-122.
- Wilson, Charles A., 1981. "Equilibrium in dynamic models with an infinity of agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 95-111, February.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991.
"Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December.
- Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-54, September.
- Charemza, Wojciech W. & Deadman, Derek F., 1995. "Speculative bubbles with stochastic explosive roots: The failure of unit root testing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 153-163, June.
- Kelly, Morgan, 1992. "On endogenous growth with productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 47-56, October.
- Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005.
"Monetary Policy, Asset-Price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound,"
NBER Working Papers
11105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Asset-Price Bubbles, and the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 43-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Asset-price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 2007.
"The Spirit of Capitalism, Stock Market Bubbles, and Output Fluctuations,"
Discussion Paper Series
205, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Oct 2007.
- Takashi Kamihigashi, 2008. "The spirit of capitalism, stock market bubbles and output fluctuations," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 3-28.
- Ikeda, Shinsuke & Shibata, Akihisa, 1992. "Fundamentals-dependent bubbles in stock prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 143-168, October.
- Kamihigashi, Takashi, 2001. "Necessity of Transversality Conditions for Infinite Horizon Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 995-1012, July.
- Kiernan, E & Madan, Dilip B, 1989. "Stochastic Stability in Macro Models," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(221), pages 97-108, February.
- Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
- Turnovsky, Stephen J & Weintraub, E Roy, 1971. "Stochastic Stability of a General Equilibrium System under Adaptive Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 71-86, February.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.