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Monetary Policy, Asset-price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound

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  • Tim Robinson

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Andrew Stone

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

We use a simple model of a closed economy to study the recommendations of monetary policy-makers attempting to respond optimally to an asset-price bubble whose stochastic properties they understand. We focus on the impact which the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates has on the recommendations of such policy-makers. For a given target inflation rate, we identify several different forms of ‘insurance’ which policy-makers could potentially take out against encountering the ZLB due to the future bursting of a bubble. Even with perfect knowledge of the bubble process, however, which of these will be optimal varies from one type of bubble to another and, for certain bubbles, from one period to the next. It is therefore difficult to draw general conclusions as to whether the ZLB should cause policy-makers to operate policy more tightly or loosely than otherwise, while a bubble is growing – even after abstracting from the informational difficulties they face in practice. We also examine the implications of the ZLB for policy-makers’ preferences as to their inflation target. Policy-makers who wish to avoid concerns about the ZLB should take care not to set too low a target, especially if the neutral real interest rate is low. Such policy-makers should also set a higher target inflation rate if the economy’s natural propensity to rebound from a shock to output is weak, or if output is relatively unresponsive to real interest rate settings.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2005-04.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2005-04

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Keywords: monetary policy; asset-price bubbles; zero lower bound;

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References

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  1. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
  2. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David Small & Peter Tinsley, 2000. "Monetary policy when the nominal short-term interest rate is zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Gruen, David & Plumb, Michael & Stone, Andrew, 2005. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?," MPRA Paper 833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 7677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Stephen G Cecchetti, 2003. "What the FOMC Says and Does When the Stock Market Booms," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2003. "Financial strains and the zero lower bound: the Japanese experience," BIS Working Papers 141, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
  13. Glenn Rudebusch, 1995. "What are the lags in monetary policy?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb3.
  14. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Asset-Price Bubbles, and the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 43-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
  16. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  19. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Dividend Growth in Germany: Long-Run Structural Modelling versus Bounds Testing Approach," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 250/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  2. David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2003. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-price Bubbles?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "(How) Do Stock Market Returns React to Monetary Policy? - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 253/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  4. Gordon Menzies & Ron Bird & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Asset Price Regulators, Unite: You have the Macroeconomy to Win and the Microeconomic Losses are Small," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 449-464, 09.
  5. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Asset-price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Kenneth Kuttner, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility: Should We Refill the Bernanke-Gertler Prescription?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-04, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jun 2011.
  7. David L. Haugh, 2008. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty about the Nature of Asset-Price Shocks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 39-83, December.
  8. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2011. "Recurrent Bubbles," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 27-62, 03.
  9. Cinzia Alcidi , Alessandro Flamini, Andrea Fracasso, 2005. ""Taylored rules". Does one fit (or hide) all?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
  10. Koppány, Krisztián, 2007. "Likviditási csapda és deflációs spirál egy inflációs célt követő modellben - a hitelesség szerepe
    [A liquidity trap and deflationary spiral in a model for pursuing an inflation target -
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 974-1003.

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