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Supply Shocks and Inflation Targeting

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  • Fabio Kanczuk

    (FEA/USP)

Abstract

We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model, calibrated to the Brazilian economy, in which a fraction of the firms set prices one quarter in advance. The artificial economy simulations generate series consistent with real data and with a typical estimation of a structural inflation-targeting model. We argue that these structural models specifications are incorrect for not considering supply shocks. In contrast, our model can separate supply and demand shocks effects, in addition to being (potentially) robust to the Lucas’ Critique.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number b01.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2003:b01

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Related research

Keywords: Brazil; Real Business Cycles; Sticky Prices;

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References

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  1. Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Antonio Tombini, 2001. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: shocks, backward-looking prices, and IMF conditionality," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 82-108 Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
  4. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April.
  5. Adolfo Sachsida & Roberto de Góes Ellery Junior & Victor Gomes, 2002. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(2), pages 269-308, April.
  6. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
  8. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  9. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fabio Kanczuk, 2002. "Juros Reais e Ciclos Reais Brasileiros," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(2), pages 249-267, April.
  11. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Antonio Tombini, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Shocks, Backward-Looking Prices, and IMF Conditionality," Working Papers Series 24, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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