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Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information

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Author Info
Thomas Lindh (Uppsala University, Sweden, and Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden)

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Abstract

Economic behaviour as well as economic resources of individuals vary with age. Swedish time series show that the age structure contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth and inflation. GDP gaps estimated by age structure regressions are closely related to conventional measures. Monetary policy is believed to affect inflation with a lag of 1 or 2 years. Projections of the population's age structure are comparatively reliable several years ahead and provide additional information to improve on 3-5 years-ahead forecasts of potential GDP and inflation. Thus there is a potential scope for using age structure based forecasts as an aid to monetary policy formation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.906
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 19-49
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:1:p:19-49

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  8. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1999. "A VAR Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 77, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Andersson, Björn, 1998. "Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age Structure," Working Paper Series 1998:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1999. "Age Distributions and the Current Account -A Changing Relation?," Working Paper Series 1999:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2009. "European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 159-187, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andersson, Andreas & Österholm, Pär, 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2001:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Andreas Andersson & Pär Österholm, 2005. "Forecasting real exchange rate trends using age structure data -- the case of Sweden," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 267-272, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bruér, Mattias, 2002. "Can Demography Improve Inflation Forecasts? The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series 2002:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andreas Andersson & Pär Österholm, 2006. "Population age structure and real exchange rates in the OECD," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Björn Andersson, 2001. "Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 377-390, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alexia Prskawetz & Thomas Kögel & Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2009. "The Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth: An Application of Probabilistic Forecasting in India," Working Papers 0403, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna. [Downloadable!]
  8. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," Arbetsrapport 2004:7, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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