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Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information

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  • Thomas Lindh

    (Uppsala University, Sweden, and Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

Economic behaviour as well as economic resources of individuals vary with age. Swedish time series show that the age structure contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth and inflation. GDP gaps estimated by age structure regressions are closely related to conventional measures. Monetary policy is believed to affect inflation with a lag of 1 or 2 years. Projections of the population's age structure are comparatively reliable several years ahead and provide additional information to improve on 3-5 years-ahead forecasts of potential GDP and inflation. Thus there is a potential scope for using age structure based forecasts as an aid to monetary policy formation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Lindh, 2004. "Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 19-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:1:p:19-49
    DOI: 10.1002/for.906
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcus Mossfeldt & Par Osterholm, 2011. "The persistent labour-market effects of the financial crisis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 637-642.
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    3. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2007. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 553-567.
    5. Andersson, Andreas & Österholm, Pär, 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2001:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of an Estimated Medium Run Model," Ruhr Economic Papers 301, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Münch, Heinz Josef & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "Methoden mittelfristiger gesamtwirtschaftlicher Projektionen: Dienstleistungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, Projektnummer 02/05. Vorläufiger Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69948.
    8. Hofer Helmut & Weyerstraß Klaus & Schmidt Torsten, 2011. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 153-171, February.
    9. Bruér, Mattias, 2002. "Can Demography Improve Inflation Forecasts? The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series 2002:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    10. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Tobias Kitlinski & Torsten Schmidt, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of an Estimated Medium Run Model," Ruhr Economic Papers 0301, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0301 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    15. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2009. "European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 159-187, August.
    16. Andreas Andersson & Par Osterholm, 2006. "Population age structure and real exchange rates in the OECD," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18.
    17. repec:zbw:rwirep:0177 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Bjorn Andersson, 2001. "Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 377-390.
    19. Paula C. A. M. de Albuquerque & Jorge Caiado & Andreia Pereira, 2020. "Population aging and inflation: evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 469-484, January.
    20. Torsten Schmidt & Helmut Hofer & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2010. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 0177, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    21. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    22. Darya Antonova & Yulia Vymyatnina, 2018. "Inflation and Population Age Structure: The Case of Emerging Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 3-25, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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