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Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age Structure

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  • Bjorn Andersson
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    Abstract

    The age distribution is seldom taken into consideration in macroeconometric papers in spite of the fact that established economic theories predict that demographic factors will affect the aggregate economy. This paper investigates empirically the influence of age variables on growth. Unlike recent papers on the subject, the focus here is on investigating the relationship on annual data for individual Scandinavian countries. Estimations of a typical growth specification, augmented with age variables, are run and the results indicate that economic growth is indeed affected by the age distribution, where the demographic structure catches the mediumrun trend in the growth rate. The robustness of this finding is first checked by instrumental-variable regressions to control for the potential endogeneity of the economic variables, and then by running ridge regressions to mitigate the collinearity between the age variables Rarement les etudes macro-economiques considerent la distribution de la population par age, malgre que les idees reCues predisent que les facteurs demographiques influent sur l'economie globale. Cet article cherche a examiner empiriquement l'impact sur la croissance des variables relatives a l'age. Contrairement a � des articles recents a ce sujet, cet article porte sur le rapport avec des donnees annuelles pour des pays scandinaves. On evalue la croissance en fonction des specifications type, augmentees par des variables relatives a l'age, et les resultats laissent voir que la croissance economique est influencee par la distribution de la population par age, la ou la demographie capte la tendance a moyen terme du taux de croissance. On verifie la fiabilite de cette conclusion, en premier en employant des regressions a variables productives afin de controler la possibilite que les variables soient endogenes, et en deuxieme en employant des regressions en rangees pour reduire la colinearite entre les variables relatives a l'age. Obwohl anerkannte Wirtschaftstheorien vorhersagen, dass demographische Faktoren sich auf die Gesamtwirtschaft auswirken werden, wird die Altersstruktur bei makro-okonomischen Abhandlungen selten berucksichtigt. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht den Einfluss von Altersvariablen auf Wirtschaftswachstum auf empirische Weise. Anders als bei kurzlich veroffentlichten Aufsatzen zu diesem Thema richtet sich die Aufmerksamkeit hier auf das oben erwahnte Verhaltnis in Bezug auf Jahresangaben fur einzelne skandinavische Lander. Es werden Schatzungen einer typischen Wachstumsangabe mit zusatzlichen Altersvariablen durchgefuhrt, und die Ergebnisse zeigen an, dass Wirtschaftswachstum tatsachlich zu dem Zeitpunkt von der Altersstruktur betroffen wird, wo die demographische Struktur die mittelfristige Tendenz der Wachstumsrate einholt. Die Aussagekraft dieses Befundes wird zunachst durch instrumentalvariable Regressionen uberpruft, als Kontrolle fur die potentiale Endogenitat der wirtschaftlichen Variablen, und dann mittels Durchfuhrung von Regressionen zur Hinderung der linearen Parallelitat der Altersvariablen.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/713693829
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 377-390

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:35:y:2001:i:5:p:377-390

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic Growth Demography Scandanavian Countries Croissance Economique Demographie Pays Scandinaves Wirtschaftswachstum Demographie Skandinavische Lander;

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    Cited by:
    1. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas & Halvarsson, Max, 2005. "Productivity consequences of workforce ageing - Stagnation or a Horndal effect?," Arbetsrapport 2005:17, Institute for Futures Studies.
    2. Hofer, Helmut & Url, Thomas, 2005. "Growth Effects of Age-related Productivity Differentials in an Ageing Society. A Simulation Study for Austria," Economics Series 179, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. K. Navaneetham, 2010. "Age Structural Transition and Economic Growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia," Working Papers id:3133, eSocialSciences.

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