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Can Demography Improve Inflation Forecasts? The Case of Sweden

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  • Bruér, Mattias

    (Department of Economics)

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    Abstract

    Time series regressions indicate that age structure has significant forecasting power on Swedish inflation. The results agree with a Phillips-Okun framework, assuming that the demographic composition affects productivity. The relative age effects are also relatively well in accordance with what could be expected from life-cycle theory. In the forecasting exercise the age model outperforms the estimated benchmarks; i.e. two autoregressive models, an ARIMA and the 2 per cent forecast corresponding to the stipulated inflation target. The age model is also considerably better than the consensus forecasts and it is equal in merit with a general VAR model that has been used by the Riksbank (Bank of Sweden). We conclude that the source of information embedded in the age shares is something the Riksbank should consider when conducting monetary policy. When extending the forecasting horizon, the age model predicts a significant rise in the inflationary pressure after 2005 when the big baby boom cohort of the 1940s enters retirement.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2002:4.

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    Length: 35 pages
    Date of creation: 15 Mar 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2002_004

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    Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
    Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
    Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
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    Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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    Keywords: Inflation forecasting; Demography; Life-cycle hypothesis;

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    1. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1998. "Age structure and inflation - a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 19-37, July.
    2. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Dissaving after Retirement: Testing the Pure Life Cycle Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 237-280 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, December.
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    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    12. Lindh, Thomas, 1999. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information," Working Paper Series 99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    13. Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," ISER Discussion Paper 0189, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    14. Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June.
    15. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
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