Age structural transition is a process and a consequence of shiftingage structure from a young aged population to old aged population. It iswell known that economic growth in the East Asian countries wassignificantly contributed by demographic gift, that is decline in youngaged population and increase in working aged population. However,little is known about the role of age structure changes on economicgrowth in the context of South and Southeast Asia. In this paper anattempt has been made to study the nature and process of age structuraltransition in the countries of South (Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka)and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore andThailand). Further, this paper also attempts to study the influence of agestructure changes on the economic growth in these countries. Timeseries analysis covering the period 1950-92 has been used for studyingthe relationship between age structure and economic growth, controllingmacroeconomic variables such as investment share of GDP, net foreignbalance, share of public consumption expenditure, inflation rate and openness. The `demographic bonus' or `window of opportunity' had a positive impact on economic growth in all Southeast Asian countries except in the Philippines. The South Asian countries did not perform well in terms of economic growth at the onset of `window of opportunity'. The results also indicate that countries that have had open economies and had excellent human capital benefited more from the "window of opportunity". In the next 20-25 years, the window of opportunity is likely to benefit most South Asian countries if favourable policies are pursued to take advantage of this with opening up their economy. The demographic bonus will be available for another 15-20 years followed by a period of demographic turbulence in the Southeast Asian countries. There will be a faster growth in the old aged population after 15 years and stagnantion/decline in the working aged population. As the gaps between demographic indicators are narrowing among the Asian countries, the question remains whether demographic convergence will lead to economic convergence in the future. The demographic transition has given the South Asian countries an opportunity for economic convergence. However, whether that opportunity is realised will depend on whether socio-economic policies are favourable to economic growth.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Find related papers by JEL classification: F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997.
"Fundamental,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 184-88, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)