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Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Simultaneous Equations Approach Using Realized Volatility

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  • Eric Hillebrand
  • Gunther Schnabl
  • Yasemin Ulu

Abstract

We use realized volatility to study the influence of central bank interventions on the yen/dollar exchange rate. Realized volatility is a technical innovation that allows specifying a system of equations for returns, realized volatility, and interventions without endogeneity bias. We find that during the period 1995 through 1999, interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities did not have the desired effect with respect to the exchange rate level and we measure an increase in volatility associated with interventions. During the period 1999 through 2004, the estimations are consistent with successful interventions, both in depreciating the yen and in reducing exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl & Yasemin Ulu, 2006. "Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Simultaneous Equations Approach Using Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 1766, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1766
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    2. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2014. "The spillover effects of unremunerated reserve requirements: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 338-351.
    3. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2020. "A lesson from the four recent large public Japanese FX interventions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-64, July.
    5. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2013. "The perils of a central bank's capital control: How substantial is the effect on firm value?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 111-135.
    6. Marsh, Ian W., 2011. "Order flow and central bank intervention: An empirical analysis of recent Bank of Japan actions in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 377-392, March.
    7. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 389-401, December.
    8. João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2018. "Realized Volatility as an Instrument to Official Intervention," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 259-281, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    9. Cheng, Ai-ru (Meg) & Das, Kuntal & Shimatani, Takeshi, 2013. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Japan using realized volatility," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 87-98.
    10. Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2009. "Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 862-873, December.
    11. Grossmann, Axel & Orlov, Alexei G., 2012. "Exchange rate misalignments in frequency domain," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 185-199.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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