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Realized Volatility Risk

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  • David E. Allen
  • Michael McAleer

    ()
    (University of Canterbury)

  • Marcel Scharth

Abstract

In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high- frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are nearly gaussian, this unpredictability brings considerably more uncertainty to the empirically relevant ex ante distribution of returns. Carefully modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility (DARV) model, which incorporates the important fact that realized volatility series are systematically more volatile in high volatility periods. Returns in this framework display time varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. We provide a detailed account of the empirical advantages of the model using data on the S&P 500 index and eight other indexes and stocks.

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File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1026.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 10/26.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/26

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Keywords: Realized volatility; volatility of volatility; volatility risk; value-at-risk; forecasting; conditional heteroskedasticity;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jensen, Mark J & Maheu, John M, 2013. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," MPRA Paper 52132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Cathy Ning & Dinghai Xu & Tony Wirjanto, 2009. "Modeling Asymmetric Volatility Clusters Using Copulas and High Frequency Data," Working Papers 006, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
  3. Asai, M. & McAleer, M.J. & Medeiros, M.C., 2008. "Asymmetry and leverage in realized volatility," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-31, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2010. "Asymmetry and Long Memory in Volatility Modelling," Working Papers in Economics 10/60, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  5. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Leverage and Feedback Effects on Multifactor Wishart Stochastic Volatility for Option Pricing," KIER Working Papers 840, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Bonato, Matteo & Caporin, Massimiliano & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2012. "Forecasting Realized (Co)Variances with a Bloc Structure Wishart Autoregressive Model," Working Papers on Finance 1211, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  7. Siem Jan Koopman & Marcel Scharth, 2011. "The Analysis of Stochastic Volatility in the Presence of Daily Realised Measures," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-132/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Vincenzo Candila, 2013. "A Comparison Of The Forecasting Performances Of Multivariate Volatility Models," Working Papers 3_228, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno.
  9. Federico M. Bandi & Roberto Reno, 2009. "Nonparametric Stochastic Volatility," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-035, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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