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Moving Average-Based Estimators of Integrated Variance

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Author Info
Peter Hansen
Jeremy Large
Asger Lunde

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Abstract

We examine moving average (MA) filters for estimating the integrated variance (IV) of a financial asset price in a framework where high-frequency price data are contaminated with market microstructure noise. We show that the sum of squared MA residuals must be scaled to enable a suitable estimator of IV. The scaled estimator is shown to be consistent, first-order efficient, and asymptotically Gaussian distributed about the integrated variance under restrictive assumptions. Under more plausible assumptions, such as time-varying volatility, the MA model is misspecified. This motivates an extensive simulation study of the merits of the MA-based estimator under misspecification. Specifically, we consider nonconstant volatility combined with rounding errors and various forms of dependence between the noise and efficient returns. We benchmark the scaled MA-based estimator to subsample and realized kernel estimators and find that the MA-based estimator performs well despite the misspecification.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/07474930701853640&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1-3 ()
Pages: 79-111
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Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:27:y:2008:i:1-3:p:79-111

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Related research
Keywords: Bias correction; High-frequency data; Integrated variance; Moving average; Realized variance; Realized volatility;

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2006. "Realized volatility: a review," Textos para discussão 531 Publication status: F, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2006. "Designing realised kernels to measure the ex-post variation of equity prices in the presence of noise," Economics Series Working Papers 264, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jeremy Large, 2007. "Estimating Quadratic Variation When Quoted Prices Change by a Constant Increment," Economics Series Working Papers 340, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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