Order flow and central bank intervention: An empirical analysis of recent Bank of Japan actions in the foreign exchange market
AbstractThis paper examines the behaviour of end-user order flows in the foreign exchange market around periods of intense and large-scale intervention activity by the Bank of Japan. First, we find very limited evidence that corporate customers are more than usually likely to be net sellers of yen on days when the Bank of Japan is intervening to sell yen. However, there is somewhat stronger evidence that financial customers are more likely to be net buyers of yen on the same days. Second, we find very clear evidence that intervention matters in a microstructure analysis. The strong contemporaneous correlation between order flows and exchange rate changes essentially disappears on days in which the Bank of Japan intervenes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
Foreign exchange Intervention Microstructure Order flow;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
- Beine, Michel & Lecourt, Christelle, 2004.
"Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange markets,"
Finance Research Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 215-225, December.
- Michel Beine & Christelle Lecourt, 2004. "Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange market," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10427, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1999.
"The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention,"
NBER Working Papers
7337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January.
- Dominguez & K., 1997. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 412, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2006.
"Understanding order flow,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 3-23.
- Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University), 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-19, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 11748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl & Yasemin Ulu, 2006. "Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Simultaneous Equations Approach Using Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 1766, CESifo Group Munich.
- Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2008.
"How is macro news transmitted to exchange rates?,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 26-50, April.
- Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001.
"Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October.
- Galati, Gabriele & Melick, William & Micu, Marian, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 982-1011, October.
- Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
- Humpage, Owen F., 2000. "The United States as an informed foreign-exchange speculator," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 287-302, December.
- Kentaro Iwatsubo & Ian W. Marsh, 2011. "Order Flows, Fundamentals and Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers 1120, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
- Masayuki Susai & Yushi Yoshida, 2012. "Central bank interventions and limit order behavior in the foreign exchange market," Discussion Papers 56, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.