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Swedish post-war economic development. The role of age structure in a welfare state

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Author Info

  • Lindh, Thomas

    ()
    (Institute for Futures Studies)

  • Malmberg, Bo

    ()
    (Institute for Futures Studies)

Abstract

There are strong life cycle patterns in practically all human behavior as well as in resources and capabilities. Variations in the age structure therefore affect all aspects of the aggregate economy. Swedish post-war development exhibit patterns of age structure effects on saving, growth, investment, current account, budget balance and inflation consistent with the dynamics of these variables in historic cycles. The deviations of actual time series from the model predictions arise with identifiable shifts in economic policy. The poor performance of the Swedish welfare state 1975-1995 can partly be explained by policies working against the underlying age structure changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2003:4.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2003_004

Note: ISBN 91-89655-33-8
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Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08-402 12 00
Fax: 08-24 50 14
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Web page: http://www.framtidsstudier.se
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Keywords: age structure; Swedish post-war economic development;

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References

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  1. Barnekow, Erik, 2002. "Demografi och finansmarknad - en översikt av empirisk forskning," Arbetsrapport 2002:7, Institute for Futures Studies.
  2. Kelley, Allen C., 1969. "Demographic Cycles and Economic Growth: The Long Swing Reconsidered," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 633-656, December.
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  4. Palme, Mårten & Svensson, Ingemar, 2002. "Pathways to Retirement and Retirement Incentives in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2002:9, Institute for Futures Studies.
  5. Sommestad, Lena, 2001. "Health and Wealth: The Contribution of Welfare State Policies to Economic Growth," Arbetsrapport 2001:3, Institute for Futures Studies.
  6. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1999. "Age Distributions and the Current Account -A Changing Relation?," Working Paper Series 1999:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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  18. Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter, 2001. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," Arbetsrapport 2001:1, Institute for Futures Studies.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ström, Sara, 2005. "Childbearing and psycho-social work life conditions in Sweden 1991-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:13, Institute for Futures Studies.
  2. Blomquist, Sören & Christiansen, Vidar, 2004. "Welfare Enhancing Marginal Tax Rates: The Case of Publicly Provided Day Care," Arbetsrapport 2004:6, Institute for Futures Studies.
  3. Lundqvist, Torbjörn, 2005. "The Employers in the Swedish Model The Importance of Labour Market Competition and Organisation," Arbetsrapport 2005:2, Institute for Futures Studies.
  4. Duvander, Ann-Zofie & Ferrarini, Tommy & Thalberg, Sara, 2005. "Swedish parental leave and gender equality - Achievements and reform challenges in a European perspective," Arbetsrapport 2005:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
  5. Thalberg, Sara, 2003. "Demographic Patterns in Europe. A review of Austria, Germany, The Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania," Arbetsrapport 2003:8, Institute for Futures Studies.
  6. Westholm, Erik, 2003. "Leaving Rurality Behind. Re-orientation of spatial policies in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2003:12, Institute for Futures Studies.
  7. Westholm, Erik, 2004. "Modes of re-territorialisation. Spatial implications of regional competition politics in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2004:4, Institute for Futures Studies.
  8. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  9. Hong, Ying & Corman, Diana, 2005. "Women´s Return to Work after First Birth in Sweden during 1980-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:19, Institute for Futures Studies.

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