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Swedish post-war economic development. The role of age structure in a welfare state

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Author Info
Lindh, Thomas () (Institute for Futures Studies)
Malmberg, Bo () (Institute for Futures Studies)

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Abstract

There are strong life cycle patterns in practically all human behavior as well as in resources and capabilities. Variations in the age structure therefore affect all aspects of the aggregate economy. Swedish post-war development exhibit patterns of age structure effects on saving, growth, investment, current account, budget balance and inflation consistent with the dynamics of these variables in historic cycles. The deviations of actual time series from the model predictions arise with identifiable shifts in economic policy. The poor performance of the Swedish welfare state 1975-1995 can partly be explained by policies working against the underlying age structure changes.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2003:4.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2003_004

Note: ISBN 91-89655-33-8
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Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: age structure Swedish post-war economic development

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Palme, Mårten & Svensson, Ingemar, 2002. "Pathways to Retirement and Retirement Incentives in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2002:9, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Perlman, Mark, 1975. "Some Economic Growth Problems and the Part Population Policy Plays," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 247-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2000. "Natural Selection and the Origin of economic Growth," Working Papers 2000-18, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," Papers 189, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
  5. Björn Andersson, 2001. "Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 377-390, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barnekow, Erik, 2002. "Demografi och finansmarknad - en översikt av empirisk forskning," Arbetsrapport 2002:7, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  7. McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sommestad, Lena, 2001. "Health and Wealth: The Contribution of Welfare State Policies to Economic Growth," Arbetsrapport 2001:3, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  9. Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "Trade surpluses and life-cycle saving behaviour," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 227-237, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lundqvist, Torbjörn, 2002. "Arbetskraft och konkurrensbegränsning; aktörsperspektiv på den svenska modellen och framtiden," Arbetsrapport 2002:1, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  11. James M. Poterba, 1998. "Population Age Structure and Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 6774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Malmberg, Bo & Sommestad, Lena, 2000. "Tunga trender i den globala utvecklingen," Arbetsrapport 2000:2, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1999. "Age Distributions and the Current Account -A Changing Relation?," Working Paper Series 1999:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Andersson, A. & Osterholm, P., 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Papers 2001-11, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  15. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2005. "Demography and housing demand - What can we learn from residential construction data?," Arbetsrapport 2005:20, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Andersson, Andreas & Österholm, Pär, 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2001:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  17. Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter, 2001. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," Arbetsrapport 2001:1, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  18. Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Westholm, Erik, 2003. "Leaving Rurality Behind. Re-orientation of spatial policies in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2003:12, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Thalberg, Sara, 2003. "Demographic Patterns in Europe. A review of Austria, Germany, The Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania," Arbetsrapport 2003:8, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Blomquist, Sören & Christiansen, Vidar, 2004. "Welfare Enhancing Marginal Tax Rates: The Case of Publicly Provided Day Care," Arbetsrapport 2004:6, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ström, Sara, 2005. "Childbearing and psycho-social work life conditions in Sweden 1991-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:13, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  5. Duvander, Ann-Zofie & Ferrarini, Tommy & Thalberg, Sara, 2005. "Swedish parental leave and gender equality - Achievements and reform challenges in a European perspective," Arbetsrapport 2005:11, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bäckman, Olof, 2005. "Welfare States, Social Structure and the Dynamics of Poverty Rates. A comparative study of 16 countries, 1980-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:7, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lundqvist, Torbjörn, 2005. "The Employers in the Swedish Model The Importance of Labour Market Competition and Organisation," Arbetsrapport 2005:2, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hong, Ying & Corman, Diana, 2005. "Women´s Return to Work after First Birth in Sweden during 1980-2000," Arbetsrapport 2005:19, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  9. Westholm, Erik, 2004. "Modes of re-territorialisation. Spatial implications of regional competition politics in Sweden," Arbetsrapport 2004:4, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  10. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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