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Demography and housing demand - What can we learn from residential construction data?

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  • Lindh, Thomas

    ()
    (Institute for Futures Studies)

  • Malmberg, Bo

    ()
    (Institute for Futures Studies)

Abstract

There are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population’s age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and OECD panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction. But there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75. Age effects on residential investment are robust and forecast well out-of-sample in contrast to the corresponding house price results. This may explain why the debate around house prices and demography has been rather inconclusive. Rapidly aging populations in the industrialized world makes the future look bleak for the construction industry of these countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2005:20.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 12 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2005_020

Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 13: 978-91-89655-78-2 ISBN 10: 91-89655-78-8
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Postal: Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, SE-101 31 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08-402 12 00
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Web page: http://www.framtidsstudier.se
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Keywords: demography; housing demand;

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Lindh, 2004. "Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 19-49.
  2. Bruér, Mattias, 2002. "Can Demography Improve Inflation Forecasts? The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series 2002:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2002. "Swedish post-war economic development. The role of age structure in a welfare state," Arbetsrapport 2003:4, Institute for Futures Studies.

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