Demography and housing demand - What can we learn from residential construction data?
AbstractThere are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population’s age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and OECD panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction. But there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75. Age effects on residential investment are robust and forecast well out-of-sample in contrast to the corresponding house price results. This may explain why the debate around house prices and demography has been rather inconclusive. Rapidly aging populations in the industrialized world makes the future look bleak for the construction industry of these countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Futures Studies in its series Arbetsrapport with number 2005:20.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 12 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Note: ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 13: 978-91-89655-78-2 ISBN 10: 91-89655-78-8
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demography; housing demand;
Other versions of this item:
- Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2008. "Demography and housing demand—what can we learn from residential construction data?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 521-539, July.
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-12-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2005-12-20 (Forecasting)
- NEP-URE-2005-12-20 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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