Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Practice and prospects of medium-term economic forecasting

Contents:

Author Info

  • Helmut Hofer

    ()

  • Torsten Schmidt

    ()

  • Klaus Weyerstrass

    ()

Abstract

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public finances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital, and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. Then we analyse the performance of medium-term forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.labornrn.at/wp/2010/wp1012.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria in its series NRN working papers with number 2010-12.

as in new window
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jku:nrnwps:2010_12

Contact details of provider:
Postal: NRN Labor Economics and the Welfare State, c/o Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, Altenbergerstr. 69, 4040 Linz
Phone: +43-732-2468-8216
Fax: +43-732-2468-8217
Email:
Web page: http://www.labornrn.at/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Econometric models; Macroeconomic forecasts; Aggregate production function; Austria;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ozlu, Elvan, 1996. "Aggregate economic fluctuations in endogenous growth models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-47.
  2. Yongsung Chang & Joao Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning by Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," Macroeconomics 0204002, EconWPA.
  3. Collard, Fabrice, 1998. "Spectral and persistence properties of cyclical growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 463-488, November.
  4. David Andolfatto & Glenn M. MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 58, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  5. Smets, Frank, 2003. "Maintaining price stability: how long is the medium term?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1293-1309, September.
  6. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Oller, Lars-Erik, 1985. "How far can changes in general business activity be forecasted?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 135-141.
  8. C�cile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 247, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. Paul Gomme, 1991. "Money and growth revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Kerk L. Phillips & Jeff Wrase, 2003. "Is Schumpeterian "Creative Destruction" a Plausible Source of Endogenous Real Business Cycle Shocks?," GE, Growth, Math methods 0304001, EconWPA.
  11. Andolfatto, D. & MacDonald, G.M., 1995. "Technological Innovation, Diffusion, and Business Cycle Dynamics," Working Papers 9503, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
  12. Diego Comin, 2009. "On the integration of growth and business cycles," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 165-176, May.
  13. Juan Zalduendo & Catia Batista, 2004. "Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?," IMF Working Papers 04/203, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 420, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  15. Christian Ragacs & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Austria from 1998 to 2006," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 29–49.
  16. Gomme, P., 1993. "Money and Growth Revisited : Measuring the Costs of Inflation in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Papers dp93-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  17. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
  18. Oliver J. Blanchard, 1997. "The Medium Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 89-158.
  19. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  20. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycles with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety," NBER Working Papers 13199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2008. "Medium run redux: technical change, factor shares and frictions in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0915, European Central Bank.
  22. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September.
  23. Cooper, Russell & Johri, Alok, 2002. "Learning-by-doing and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1539-1566, November.
  24. Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2004. "Endogenous Growth And Endogenous Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(05), pages 559-581, November.
  25. Lindh, Thomas, 1999. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information," Working Paper Series 99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  26. repec:fth:simfra:93-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  28. Einarsson, Tor & Marquis, Milton H., 1997. "Home production with endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 551-569, August.
  29. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. repec:fth:simfra:95-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Richard Dennis, 2008. "The Frequency Of Price Adjustment And New Keynesian Business Cycle Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2008-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  32. Bental, Benjamin & Peled, Dan, 1996. "The Accumulation of Wealth and the Cyclical Generation of New Technologies: A Search Theoretic Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 687-718, August.
  33. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  34. Einarsson, Tor & Marquis, Milton H., 1998. "An RBC model with growth: the role of human capital," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 431-444, September.
  35. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Laura Carabotta, 2014. "Which Agency and Which Period is The Best? Analyzing National and International Fiscal Forecasts in Italy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-46.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jku:nrnwps:2010_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ren� B�heim).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.