This paper develops and analyzes a macroeconomic model in which aggregate growth and fluctuations arise from the discovery and diffusion of new technologies; there are no exogenous aggregate shocks. The temporal behavior of aggregates is driven by individuals' efforts to innovate and/or make use of others' innovations. Parameters describing preferences, production possibilities, and learning technologies are estimated using post-war U.S. data. The model delivers predicted aggregates that grow and fluctuate much like the data. They key features of post-war growth are explained by new technologies that differ in terms of the magnitude of their improvement over existing methods and the difficulty of acquiring them. The model implies a negative trend in technological dispersion, and that the generally lower growth witnessed during the last two decades is the result of new technologies offering comparatively minor or less broadly applicable improvements. Data on the growing and fluctuating share of engineering Ph.D.s support the model's technological interpretation of the growth facts, and data on patent applications and adult schooling are consistent with the notion that newer technologies are more specific and proprietary. (Copyright: Elsevier)
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Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.
Volume (Year): 1 (1998) Issue (Month): 2 (April) Pages: 338-370 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
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Jovanovic, B. & Macdonald, G.M., 1988.
"Competitive Diffusion,"
RCER Working Papers
160, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M., 1988.
"Competitive Diffusion,"
Working Papers
88-29, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1994.
"Competitive Diffusion,"
NBER Working Papers
4463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1991.
"Competitive Diffusion,"
Papers
92-08, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1997.
"Product Innovation and the Business Cycle,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-22, February.
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