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The transition to a new economy after the Second Industrial Revolution

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Author Info
Andy Atkeson
Pat Kehoe

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Abstract

During the Second Industrial Revolution, 1860–1900, many new technologies, including electricity, were invented. After this revolution, however, several decades passed before these new technologies diffused and measured productivity growth increased. We build a quantitative model of technology diffusion which we use to study this transition to a new economy. We show that the model implies both slow diffusion and a delay in growth similar to that in the data. Our model casts doubt, however, on the conjecture that this experience is a useful parallel for understanding the productivity paradox following the Information Technology Revolution.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2002:i:nov:x:2

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chari, V V & Hopenhayn, Hugo, 1991. "Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1142-65, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Argote, L. & Epple, D., 1990. "Learning Curves In Manufacturing," GSIA Working Papers 89-90-02, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  6. Atkenson, Andrew & Khan, Aubhik & Ohanian, Lee, 1996. "Are data on industry evolution and gross job turnover relevant for macroeconomics?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 215-239, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jovanovic, B. & Macdonald, G.M., 1988. "Competitive Diffusion," RCER Working Papers 160, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  9. Hopenhayn, Hugo & Rogerson, Richard, 1993. "Job Turnover and Policy Evaluation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 915-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gerard, 2000. "The Optimal Speed of Transition: A General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 219-39, February.
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  11. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. J. Bradford Jensen & Robert H. McGuckin & Kevin Stiroh, 2000. "The Impact of Vintage and Survival on Productivity: Evidence from Cohorts of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," Economics Program Working Papers 00-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 1978. "On the Size Distribution of Business Firms," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 508-523, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Brixiova, Zuzana & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1997. "Private sector development in transition economies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 241-279, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Elhanan Helpman & Manuel Trajtenberg, 1996. "Diffusion of General Purpose Technologies," NBER Working Papers 5773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932.
  20. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Industry evolution and transition: the role of information capital," Staff Report 162, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas Cooley & Ramon Marimon & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2003. "Aggregate Consequences of Limited Contract Enforceability," NBER Working Papers 10132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael R. Pakko, 2005. "Changing technology trends, transition dynamics and growth accounting," Working Papers 2000-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eliasson, Gunnar & Johansson, Dan & Taymaz, Erol, 2004. "Simulating the New Economy," Ratio Working Papers 52, The Ratio Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dirk Krueger & Krishna B. Kumar, 2003. "US-Europe Differences in Technology-Driven Growth: Quantifying the Role of Education," NBER Working Papers 10001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2002. "Stock Market Boom and the Productivity Gains of the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 9034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "Mergers as Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 9279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Pedro S. Amaral & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Finance Matters," Macroeconomics 0502007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Díaz Chao, A., 2003. "El efecto de las tecnologías digitales en la competitividad de la empresa española./The effect of digital technologies in the spanish firm competitivenses," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 21, pages 521-534, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2005. "Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 5428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Rodolfo Manuelli & Ananth Seshadri, 2003. "Frictionless Technology Diffusion: The Case of Tractors," NBER Working Papers 9604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 2000. "The IT revolution : is it evident in the productivity numbers?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 49-78. [Downloadable!]
  12. Erwan Quintin, 2008. "Contract enforcement and the size of the informal economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 395-416, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Schiff, Maurice & Wang, Yanling, 2004. "On the quantity and quality of knowledge - the impact of openness and foreign research and development on North-North and North-South technology spillovers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3190, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2007. "Financial Friction, Capital Reallocation and Expectation-Driven Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 3889, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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