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The Impact Of Vintage And Survival On Productivity: Evidence From Cohorts Of U.S. Manufacturing Plants

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  • J. Bradford Jensen
  • Robert H. McGuckin
  • Kevin J. Stiroh

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of productivity in U.S. manufacturing plants from 1963 to 1992. We define a vintage effect as the change in productivity of recent cohorts of new plants relative to earlier cohorts of new plants, and a survival effect as the change in productivity of a particular cohort of surviving plants as it ages. Both factors contribute to industry productivity growth, but play offsetting roles in determining a cohort's relative position in the productivity distribution. Recent cohorts enter with higher productivity than earlier entrants did, whereas surviving cohorts show productivity increases as they age. These two effects roughly offset each other, however, so there is a rough convergence in productivity across cohorts in 1992 and 1987. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 83 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 323-332

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:83:y:2001:i:2:p:323-332

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  1. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
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  3. Mark Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1994. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau 94-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. John C. Haltiwanger, 1997. "Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 55-78.
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  6. Robert H Mcguckin & Bradford J Jensen, 1996. "Firm Performance And Evolution Empirical Regularities In The U.S. Microdata," Working Papers, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau 96-10, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  7. Caballero, R.J. & Hammour, M.L., 1991. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," Discussion Papers, Columbia University, Department of Economics 1991_59, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  8. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August.
  9. Laura Power, 1998. "The Missing Link: Technology, Investment, And Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 300-313, May.
  10. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
  11. Thomas F. Cooley & Jeremy Greenwood & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 1994. "The Replacement Problem," Working Papers, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM 9408, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  12. Eric J. Bartelsman & Mark Doms, 2000. "Understanding productivity: lessons from longitudinal microdata," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2000-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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