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The Impact of Vintage and Survival on Productivity: Evidence from Cohorts of U.S. Manufacturing Plants

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Author Info
J. Bradford Jensen
Robert H McGuckin
Kevin J Stiroh

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Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of productivity in U.S. manufacturing plants from 1963 to 1992. We define a “vintage effect” as the change in productivity of recent cohorts of new plants relative to earlier cohorts of new plants, and a “survival effect” as the change in productivity of a particular cohort of surviving plants as it ages. The data show that both factors contribute to industry productivity growth, but play offsetting roles in determining a cohort’s relative position in the productivity distribution. Recent cohorts enter with significantly higher productivity than earlier entrants did, while surviving cohorts show significant increases in productivity as they age. These two effects roughly offset each other, however, so there is a rough convergence in productivity across cohorts in 1992 and 1987. (JEL Code: D24, L6)

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Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 00-06.

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Date of creation: May 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:00-06

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Keywords: CES economic research micro data microdata chief economist

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert H Mcguckin & George A Pascoe, 1988. "The Longitudinal Research Database (LRD): Status And Research Possibilities," Working Papers 88-2, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
  2. Laura Power, 1998. "The Missing Link: Technology, Investment, And Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 300-313, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John C. Haltiwanger, 1997. "Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 55-78. [Downloadable!]
  4. Thomas F. Cooley & Jeremy Greenwood & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 1994. "The Replacement Problem," Working Papers 9408, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
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  5. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eric J. Bartelsman & Mark Doms, 2000. "Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 569-594, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mark Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1994. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 94-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jensen, J Bradford & McGuckin, Robert H, 1997. "Firm Performance and Evolution: Empirical Regularities in the US Microdata," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 25-47.
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  11. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1995. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," NBER Working Papers 5260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Baldwin, John R. & Sabourin, David, 2001. "Impact of the Adoption of Advanced Information and Communication Technologies on Firm Performance in the Canadian Manufacturing Sector," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2001174e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert H McGuckin & Sang V Nguyen, 2000. "The Impact of Ownership Changes: A View from Labor Markets," Working Papers 00-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Fernandes, Ana M., 2006. "Firm Productivity in Bangladesh Manufacturing Industries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3988, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. David L. Rigby, Jurgen Essletzbichler, 2000. "Impacts of Industry Mix, Technological Change, Selection and Plant Entry/Exit on Regional Productivity Growth," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 333-342, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Omar LICANDRO & Reyes MAROTO & Luis A. PUCH, 2004. "Innovation, investment and productivity: evidence from Spanish firms," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/07, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2005. "Modeling and measuring organization capital," Staff Report 291, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Min Ouyang, 2005. "The Scarring Effect of Recessions," Working Papers 050609, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Mika Maliranta, 1998. "Factors of Productivity Performance by Plant Generation:Some findings from Finnish manufacturing," Discussion Papers 634, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  9. Licandro, Omar & Maroto Illera, María Reyes & Puch, Luis, 2005. "Innovation, Machine Replacement and Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ekaterina Emm & Jayant Kale, 2006. "Efficiency Implications of Corporate Diversification: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers 06-26, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
  11. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2006. "Modeling the transition to a new economy: lessons from two technological revolutions," Staff Report 296, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Cruz A. Echevarria & Amaia Iza, 2005. "Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth," DFAEII Working Papers 200517, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 16 Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2001. "The transition to a new economy after the Second Industrial Revolution," Working Papers 606, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Baldwin, John R. & Sabourin, David, 2001. "Impact de l'adoption des technologies de l'information et des communications de pointe sur la performance des entreprises du secteur de la fabrication au Canada," Direction des études analytiques : documents de recherche 2001174f, Statistics Canada, Direction des études analytiques. [Downloadable!]
  15. Peter Thompson, 2008. "Learning by Doing," Working Papers 0806, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Min Ouyang, 2006. "Plant Life Cycle and Aggregate Employment Dynamics," Working Papers 050632, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Fernandes, Ana M. & Isgut, Alberto E., 2005. "Learning-by-doing, learning-by-exporting, and productivity : evidence from Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3544, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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