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Modeling the Transition to a New Economy: Lessons from Two Technological Revolutions

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  • Andrew Atkeson
  • Patrick J. Kehoe

Abstract

Many view the period after the Second Industrial Revolution as a paradigm of a transition to a new economy following a technological revolution, including the Information Technology Revolution. We build a quantitative model of diffusion and growth during transitions to evaluate that view. With a learning process quantified by data on the life cycle of US manufacturing plants, the model accounts for the key features of the transition after the Second Industrial Revolution. But we find that features like those will occur in other transitions only if a large amount of knowledge about old technologies exists before the transition begins. (JEL L60, N61, N62, N71, N72, O33)

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.97.1.64
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 97 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 64-88

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:97:y:2007:i:1:p:64-88

Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.97.1.64
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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Safarzynska, Karolina & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2011. "Industry evolution, rational agents and the transition to sustainable electricity production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6440-6452, October.
  2. Lustig, Hanno & Syverson, Chad & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2011. "Technological change and the growing inequality in managerial compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 601-627, March.
  3. Yi-Chan Tsai, 2010. "News Shocks and Costly Technology Adoption," 2010 Meeting Papers 567, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Hernan J Moscoso Boedo & Pablo N D’Erasmo, 2009. "Financial Structure, Informality and Development," Virginia Economics Online Papers 374, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
  5. Dan Cao & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2012. "Technological Revolutions and Debt Hangovers - Is There a Link?," EIEF Working Papers Series 1216, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2013.
  6. D'Erasmo, Pablo & Moscoso Boedo, Herman J. & Senkal, Asli, 2014. "Misallocation, informality, and human capital: understanding the role of institutions," Working Papers 14-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Parantap Basu & Alessandra Guariglia, 2008. "Does Low Education Delay Structural Transformation?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 104-127, July.
  8. Klaus Desmet & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2007. "Spatial Growth and Industry Age," NBER Working Papers 13302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Virgiliu Midrigan & Daniel Yi Xu, 2014. "Finance and Misallocation: Evidence from Plant-Level Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 422-58, February.
  10. Daniel Schiess & Roger Wehrli, 2008. "The Calm Before the Storm? - Anticipating the Arrival of General Purpose Technologies," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 08/81, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  11. Oleg Itskhoki & Benjamin Moll, 2014. "Optimal Development Policies with Financial Frictions," NBER Working Papers 19994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
  13. De, Supriyo, 2014. "Intangible capital and growth in the ‘new economy’: Implications of a multi-sector endogenous growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 25-42.
  14. Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ananth Seshadri, 2014. "Frictionless Technology Diffusion: The Case of Tractors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1368-91, April.
  15. Solomon, Bernard Daniel, 2010. "Firm leverage, household leverage and the business cycle," MPRA Paper 26504, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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