Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age Structure
AbstractThe age distribution is seldom taken into consideration in macroeconomic, and macro-econometric papers. This in spite of the fact that established economic theories predict that demographic factors will affect the aggregate economy. This paper focuses on economic growth and investigates empirically the influence of age variables on growth. Unlike other recent papers on the subject, the focus here is on annual data and individual countries, namely Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Estimations of a typical growth specification, augmented with age variables and other, more volatile, economic variables, are carried out, and results from these regressions seem to indicate that economic growth is indeed affected by the age distribution. The effect does not disappear when the specification is reestimated using an instrumental variable estimator in order to correct for the potential endogeneity of the economic variables. Since the age variables are highly correlated with each other, experiments with ridge regressions are also made in order to mitigate the collinearity which obscures the results when all of the age variables are included in the regressions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 1998:4.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jan 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Regional Studies, 2001, pages 377-390.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
More information through EDIRC
growth; age structure; Scandinavian countries; ridge regression;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1998-08-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-GTH-1998-08-24 (Game Theory)
- NEP-TID-1998-08-31 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
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- Lindh, Thomas, 1999.
"Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information,"
Working Paper Series
99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Thomas Lindh, 2004. "Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 19-49.
- Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1999.
"Age Distributions and the Current Account -A Changing Relation?,"
Working Paper Series
1999:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Lindh, T. & Malmberg, B., 1999. "Age Distributions and the Current Account - A Changing Relation?," Papers 1999:21, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
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