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Parasal büyüme ve tüketici enflasyonu değişim oranı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi üzerine bir deneme: Türkiye örneği
[An essay upon the causality relationship between the monetary growth and the change in inflation: the case of Turkey]

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  • Levent, Korap

Abstract

In this paper the causality relationships between the inflationary process, experienced by the Turkish economy, and some main money supply measures have been tried to be investigated, and the direction of these relationships has also been aimed to be determined through the vector autoregression impulse-response function estimates. Our findings in general indicate that the course of inflationary framework seems to be exogenous as to the course of the monetary aggregates, and that the course of the monetary aggregates seems to be endogenous as to the course of the inflation. Moreover, impulse-response function estimates have been found supportive to these results. All in all, it is concluded that the monetary policy tends to be adaptive to the inflationary framework under the investigation period considered.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 19537.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19537

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Keywords: Inflation ; Money Supply ; Causality ; Unit Root ; Stationarity ; Vector Autoregression ; Generalized Impulse-Response Shocks ; Turkish Economy ;

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  1. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  3. Ali Hakan Kara, 2006. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 0603, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Erdal Ozmen, 1998. "Is currency seigniorage exogenous for inflation tax in Turkey?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 545-552.
  5. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, 06.
  6. Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Herwartz, Helmut, 2001. "Long-Run Links Among Money, Prices, and Output: World-Wide Evidence," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  8. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  10. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  11. Us, Vuslat, 2004. "Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1003-1013, December.
  12. Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
  13. C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  14. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  15. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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