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Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence

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  • Ayca Tekin-Koru
  • Erdal Ozmen

Abstract

The paper investigates the long-run relationships between budget deficits, inflation and monetary growth in Turkey considering two alternative trivariate systems corresponding to the narrowest and the broadest monetary aggregates. While the joint endogeneity of money and inflation rejects the validity of the monetarist view, lack of a direct relationship between inflation and budget deficits makes the pure fiscal theory explanations illegitimate for the Turkish case. Consistent with the policy regime of financing domestic debt through the commercial banking system, budget deficits lead to a growth not of currency seigniorage but of broad money in Turkey. This mode of deficit financing, leading to the creation of near money and restricting the scope for an effective monetary policy, may not be sustainable, as the government securities/broad money ratio cannot grow without limit.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 591-596

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:5:p:591-596

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Amir Kia, 2004. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors?," Carleton Economic Papers 04-15, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  2. Levent, Korap, 2009. "Parasal büyüme ve tüketici enflasyonu değişim oranı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi üzerine bir deneme: Türkiye örneği
    [An essay upon the causality relationship between the monetary gro
    ," MPRA Paper 19537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
  4. Jérôme Creel & Günes Kamber, 2004. "Debt, deficits and inflation on the road to the EU: the case of Turkey," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 157-174.
  5. Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad Mazhar & Ali, Amanat & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level: A Panel Data Analysis for selected Saarc Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 152-170, September.
  6. K. Azim Ozdemir, 2005. "A Monetary Disequilibrium Model for Turkey : Investigation of a Disinflationary Fiscal Rule and its Implications on Monetary Policy," Working Papers 0507, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  7. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Modeling base money demand and inflation for the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Tan, Eu Chye, 2006. "Fiscal Deficits, Inflation and Economic Growth in a Successful Open Developing Economy," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 2(1).
  9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Serdar Kurt & Canan Gunes & Verda Davasligil, 2012. "The Effect of Global Financial Crisis on Budget Deficits in European Countries: Panel Data Analysis," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, November.
  11. Hossein Kavand & J. Stephen Ferris, 2012. "An Oil-Driven Endogenous Growth Model," Carleton Economic Papers 12-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  12. Kia, Amir, 2006. "Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors?: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 879-903, November.
  13. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 05/221, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi, 2008. "Seigniorage Revenue or Consumer Revenue? Theoretical and Empirical Evidences," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-11, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  15. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.

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