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Unit Root Testing in a Central Bank

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Author Info
Lavan Mahadeva and Paul Robinson

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Abstract

Central bank economists have to understand and forecast macroeconomic time series. A serious problem that they face is that those series are often trended or a.ected by persistent innovations to the process. To try to get round this problem, or at least to understand its possible e.ects, it is common to test whether series are stationary. These tests are often called unit-root tests.1 In this handbook we discuss such testing. A model-builder should use appropriate econometric techniques. In order to choose between alternative estimators, the model-builder needs to think carefully about the relevant theory and the available data. But economic theory is rarely unambiguous in its implications for the data generating process. Subjecting the data to pre-estimation testing can help to gauge the relevance of different theories and possible data problems.

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File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/ccbs/handbooks/pdf/ccbshb22.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: English version
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Publisher Info
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
This book is provided by Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England in its series Handbooks with number 22 and published in 2004.

ISBN: 1 85730 138 2
Handle: RePEc:ccb:hbooks:22

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Postal: Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/ccbs/
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Related research
Keywords: Unit; Root; Testing; Central Bank;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Andrew P. Blake & George Kapetanios, 2003. "Pure Significance Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis Against Nonlinear Alternatives," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 253-267, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Haldrup, Neils, 1998. " An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1148-1171, October. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Phillips, Peter C B & Xiao, Zhijie, 1998. " A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 423-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  10. Lee, Junsoo & Schmidt, Peter, 1994. "Unit Root Tests Based on Instrumental Variables Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(2), pages 449-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Mahadeva, Lavan & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Inflation Targets as a Stabilisation Device," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 134, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Blough, Stephen R, 1992. "The Relationship between Power and Level for Generic Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 295-308, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Andrew Harvey, 2002. "Trends, Cycles and Convergence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 155, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
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  21. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

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