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Unit Root Testing in a Central Bank

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  • Lavan Mahadeva and Paul Robinson

Abstract

Central bank economists have to understand and forecast macroeconomic time series. A serious problem that they face is that those series are often trended or a.ected by persistent innovations to the process. To try to get round this problem, or at least to understand its possible e.ects, it is common to test whether series are stationary. These tests are often called unit-root tests.1 In this handbook we discuss such testing. A model-builder should use appropriate econometric techniques. In order to choose between alternative estimators, the model-builder needs to think carefully about the relevant theory and the available data. But economic theory is rarely unambiguous in its implications for the data generating process. Subjecting the data to pre-estimation testing can help to gauge the relevance of different theories and possible data problems.

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File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/ccbs/handbooks/pdf/ccbshb22.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England in its series Handbooks with number 22 and published in 2004.

ISBN: 1 85730 138 2
Handle: RePEc:ccb:hbooks:22

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Phone: +44 (020) 7601 4444
Fax: +44 (020) 7601 5460
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Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/ccbs/default.aspx
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Related research

Keywords: Unit; Root; Testing; Central Bank;

References

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  1. Charles R. Nelson & Heejoon Kang, 1983. "Pitfalls in the use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gonzalo, Jesús & Lee, Tae-Hwy, . "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/753, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
  3. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Haldrup, Neils, 1998. " An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
  7. Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Phillips, Peter C B & Xiao, Zhijie, 1998. " A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-69, December.
  9. Lee, Junsoo & Schmidt, Peter, 1994. "Unit Root Tests Based on Instrumental Variables Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(2), pages 449-62, May.
  10. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  11. Mahadeva, Lavan & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Inflation Targets as a Stabilisation Device," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 134, Royal Economic Society.
  12. Andrew C. Harvey, 2002. "Trends, Cycles, and Convergence," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 8, pages 221-250 Central Bank of Chile.
  13. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," NBER Working Papers 6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809.
  15. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
  16. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Dolado, Juan José & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/3321, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
  18. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  19. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: some critical issues," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 13-44.
  20. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
  21. Andrew P. Blake & George Kapetanios, 2003. "Pure Significance Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis Against Nonlinear Alternatives," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 253-267, 05.
  22. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1148-1171, October.
  23. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, July.
  24. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  25. Blough, Stephen R, 1992. "The Relationship between Power and Level for Generic Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 295-308, July-Sept.
  26. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
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